Abstract. Lava flow simulations help to better understand volcanic hazards and may assist emergency preparedness at active volcanoes. We demonstrate that at Fogo Volcano, Cabo Verde, such simulations can explain the 2014–2015 lava flow crisis and therefore provide a valuable base to better prepare for the next inevitable eruption. We conducted topographic mapping in the field and a satellite-based remote sensing analysis. We produced the first topographic model of the 2014–2015 lava flow from combined terrestrial laser scanner (TLS) and photogrammetric data. This high-resolution topographic information facilitates lava flow volume estimates of 43.7 ± 5.2 × 106 m3 from the vertical difference between pre- and posteruptive topographies. Both the pre-eruptive and updated digital elevation models (DEMs) serve as the fundamental input data for lava flow simulations using the well-established DOWNFLOW algorithm. Based on thousands of simulations, we assess the lava flow hazard before and after the 2014–2015 eruption. We find that, although the lava flow hazard has changed significantly, it remains high at the locations of two villages that were destroyed during this eruption. This result is of particular importance as villagers have already started to rebuild the settlements. We also analysed satellite radar imagery acquired by the German TerraSAR-X (TSX) satellite to map lava flow emplacement over time. We obtain the lava flow boundaries every 6 to 11 days during the eruption, which assists the interpretation and evaluation of the lava flow model performance. Our results highlight the fact that lava flow hazards change as a result of modifications of the local topography due to lava flow emplacement. This implies the need for up-to-date topographic information in order to assess lava flow hazards. We also emphasize that areas that were once overrun by lava flows are not necessarily safer, even if local lava flow thicknesses exceed the average lava flow thickness. Our observations will be important for the next eruption of Fogo Volcano and have implications for future lava flow crises and disaster response efforts at basaltic volcanoes elsewhere in the world.

Fogo volcano erupted in 2014-2015 producing an extensive lava flow field in the summit caldera that destroyed two villages, Portela and Bangaeira. The eruption started with powerful explosive activity, lava fountains, and a substantial ash column accompanying the opening of an eruptive fissure. Lava flows spreading from the base of the eruptive fissure produced three arterial lava flows. By a week after the start of the eruption, a master lava tube had already developed within the eruptive fissure and along the arterial flow. In this paper, we analyze the emplacement processes based on observations carried out directly on the lava flow field, remote sensing measurements carried out with a thermal camera, SO 2 fluxes, and satellite images, to unravel the key factors leading to the development of lava tubes. These were responsible for the rapid expansion of lava for thẽ 7.9 km length of the flow field, as well as the destruction of the Portela and Bangaeira villages. The key factors leading to the development of tubes were the low topography and the steady magma supply rate along the arterial lava flow. Comparing time-averaged discharge rates (TADR) obtained from satellite and Supply Rate (SR) derived from SO 2 flux data, we estimate the amount and timing of the lava flow field endogenous growth, with the aim of developing a tool that could be used for hazard assessment and risk mitigation at this and other volcanoes.

Abstract. Lava flow simulations help to better understand volcanic hazards and may assist emergency preparedness at active volcanoes. We show that at Fogo Volcano, Cape Verde, such simulations can explain the 2014–2015 lava flow crisis and therefore provide a valuable base to better prepare for the inevitable next eruption. In a rapid disaster response effort, we conducted topographic mapping in the field and a satellite based remote sensing analysis. We produced the first topographic model of the 2014–2015 lava flows from combined Terrestrial Laser Scanner (TLS) and photogrammetric data. This high resolution topographic information facilitates lava flow volume estimates of 43.7 × 106 m3 (+/−5.2 × 106 m3) from the vertical difference between pre- and post-eruptive topographies. Both, the pre-eruptive and updated Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) serve as the fundamental input parameters for lava flow simulations using the well-established DOWNFLOW algorithm. Based on thousands of simulations, we assess the lava flow hazard before and after the 2014–2015 eruption. We find that, although the lava flow hazard has changed significantly, it remains high at the locations of two villages that were destroyed during this eruption. This result is of particular importance as villagers have already started to rebuild the settlements. We also analyse satellite radar imagery acquired by the German TerraSAR-X (TSX) satellite to map lava flow emplacement over time. We obtain the lava flow boundaries every 6 days during the eruption which assists the interpretation and evaluation of the lava flow model performance. Based on this, we discuss how our study can help improving the general understanding of basaltic lava flow behavior. Our results highlight the fact that lava flow hazards change as a result of modifications of the local topography due to lava flow emplacement, which implies the need for up-to-date topographic information in order to assess lava flow hazards. We also emphasize that areas that were once overrun by lava flows are not necessarily "safer", even if local lava flow thicknesses exceed the average lava flow thickness. Our observations will be important for the next eruption of Fogo Volcano and have implications for future lava flow crises and disaster response efforts at basaltic volcanoes elsewhere in the world.

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Dated paleosea level markers and eustatic sea level changes are necessary but not sufficient information to calculate vertical motion rates on oceanic islands. Therefore, we use a procedure in which we work progressively back in time to incorporate the more recent vertical motion rates implied by the youngest paleoshorelines into the vertical motion history of all older shorelines. Specifically, we calculate the time‐averaged vertical motion rates required to explain the present‐day elevations of the dated sequence of paleoshorelines on Santiago volcanic island (Cape Verde). We thus obtain a vertical motion history consisting of time‐averaged vertical motion rates spanning the five intervening periods between paleoshoreline formation and the present day: (1) 5.06 to 3.29 Ma—seamount growth or island subsidence because all the rocks in this period are submarine; (2) fast uplift (approximately 0.96 mm/a) from 3.29 to 2.87 Ma, mostly responsible for putting submarine lavas currently close to 410 m altitude; (3) relatively fast subsidence (approximately −0.11 mm/a) between 2.87 and 2.18 Ma; (4) stagnation from 2.18 to 0.811 Ma; and (5) relatively fast uplift (approximately 0.14 mm/a) between 0.811 and 0 Ma. We numerically tested top‐down (volcanic loading) and bottom‐up (lithosphere thinning, underplating, and mantle plume) mechanisms to explain the inferred vertical movements, and we conclude that volcanic loading and crustal underplating are capable of producing the observed subsidence and uplift, respectively.