High-throughput screening is an early critical step in drug discovery. Its aim is to screen a large number of diverse chemical compounds to identify candidate 'hits' rapidly and accurately. Few statistical tools are currently available, however, to detect quality hits with a high degree of confidence. We examine statistical aspects of data preprocessing and hit identification for primary screens. We focus on concerns related to positional effects of wells within plates, choice of hit threshold and the importance of minimizing false-positive and false-negative rates. We argue that replicate measurements are needed to verify assumptions of current methods and to suggest data analysis strategies when assumptions are not met. The integration of replicates with robust statistical methods in primary screens will facilitate the discovery of reliable hits, ultimately improving the sensitivity and specificity of the screening process.

Polycythemia vera (PV) and essential thrombocythemia (ET) constitute two of the three BCR-ABL1-negative myeloproliferative neoplasms and are characterized by relatively long median survivals (approximately 14 and 20 years, respectively). Potentially fatal disease complications in PV and ET include disease transformation into myelofibrosis (MF) or acute myeloid leukemia (AML). The range of reported frequencies for post-PV MF were 4.9–6% at 10 years and 6–14% at 15 years and for post-ET MF were 0.8–4.9% at 10 years and 4–11% at 15 years. The corresponding figures for post-PV AML were 2.3–14.4% at 10 years and 5.5–18.7% at 15 years and for post-ET AML were 0.7–3% at 10 years and 2.1–5.3% at 15 years. Risk factors cited for post-PV MF include advanced age, leukocytosis, reticulin fibrosis, splenomegaly and JAK2V617F allele burden and for post-ET MF include advanced age, leukocytosis, anemia, reticulin fibrosis, absence of JAK2V617F, use of anagrelide and presence of ASXL1 mutation. Risk factors for post-PV AML include advanced age, leukocytosis, reticulin fibrosis, splenomegaly, abnormal karyotype, TP53 or RUNX1 mutations as well as use of pipobroman, radiophosphorus (P32) and busulfan and for post-ET AML include advanced age, leukocytosis, anemia, extreme thrombocytosis, thrombosis, reticulin fibrosis, TP53 or RUNX1 mutations. It is important to note that some of the aforementioned incidence figures and risk factor determinations are probably inaccurate and at times conflicting because of the retrospective nature of studies and the inadvertent labeling, in some studies, of patients with prefibrotic primary MF or ‘masked' PV, as ET. Ultimately, transformation of MPN leads to poor outcomes and management remains challenging. Further understanding of the molecular events leading to disease transformation is being investigated.

In a recent International Working Group on Myeloproliferative Neoplasms Research and Treatment (IWG-MRT) study, prior arterial events and hypertension were predictors of subsequent arterial thrombosis whereas prior venous events and age ≥65 years predicted venous thrombosis in polycythemia vera (PV). In the current study, we sought to validate the above findings and identify additional predictors of arterial versus venous thrombosis. At a median follow up of 109 months, thrombosis after diagnosis occurred in 128 (22%) patients; 82 (14%) arterial and 57 (10%) venous events. On multivariate analysis, prior arterial events (<0.0001), hyperlipidemia (p = 0.03), and hypertension (p = 0.02) predicted subsequent arterial events. In comparison, prior venous events (p = 0.05), leukocytosis ≥11 × 109/L (p = 0.002), and major hemorrhage (p = 0.02) were predictors of subsequent venous events. Salient associations with arterial thrombosis included age ≥ 60 years, hypertension, diabetes, hyperlipidemia and normal karyotype whereas age ≤ 60 years, females, palpable splenomegaly and history of major hemorrhage were associated with venous thrombosis. TET2 or ASXL1 mutations did not impact arterial nor venous thrombosis. In conclusion, we identify distinct associations for arterial versus venous thrombosis in PV and confirm that a prior arterial or venous thrombotic event is the most reliable predictor of subsequent events.

Monocytosis (absolute monocyte count, AMC ≥ 1 × 10 /L) might accompany a spectrum of myeloid neoplasms, other than chronic myelomonocytic leukemia (CMML). In the current study, we examined the prevalence, laboratory and molecular correlates, and prognostic relevance of monocytosis in polycythemia vera (PV). Among 267 consecutive patients with World Health Organization (WHO)-defined PV, 55 (21%) patients displayed an AMC of ≥1 × 10 /L and 18 (7%) an AMC of ≥1.5 × 10 /L. In general, PV patients with monocytosis were significantly older and displayed higher frequencies of leukocytosis (81% vs. 50% at AMC ≥1 × 10 /L) and TET2/SRSF2 mutations (57%/29% vs. 19%/1% at AMC ≥ 1.5 × 10 /L). In univariate analysis, AMC ≥1.5 × 10 /L adversely affected overall (OS; P = .004; HR 2.6, 95% CI 1.4-4.8) and myelofibrosis-free (MFFS; P = .02; HR 4.4, 95% CI 1.3-15.1) survival; during multivariable analysis, significance was borderline sustained for OS (P = .05) and MFFS (P = .06). Other independent risk factors for OS included unfavorable karyotype (P = .02, HR 3.39, 95% CI 1.17-9.79), older age (P < .0001, HR 3.34 95% CI 1.97-5.65), and leukocytosis ≥15 × 10 /L (P = .004, HR 2.04, 95% CI 1.26-3.29). In conclusion, in the current study, we encountered a higher than expected prevalence of monocytosis in patients with PV and the mutation profile and age distribution of PV patients with monocytosis is akin to those of patients with CMML and might partly contribute to their worse prognosis.

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