The increasing incidence of toxic cyanobacterial blooms, together with the difficulties to reliably predict cyanobacterial toxin (e.g. microcystins) concentration, has created the need to assess the predictive ability and variability of the cyanobacterial biomass-microcystin relationship, which is currently used to assess the risk to human and ecosystems health. To achieve this aim, we assessed the relationship between cyanobacterial biomass and microcystin concentration on a spatiotemporal scale by quantifying the concentration of cyanobacterial biomass and microcystin in eight lakes over 9 months. On both a temporal and spatial scale, the variability of microcystin concentration exceeded that of cyanobacterial biomass by up to four times. The relationship between cyanobacterial biomass and microcystin was weak and site specific. The variability of cyanobacterial biomass only explained 25 % of the variability in total microcystin concentration and 7 % of the variability of cellular microcystin concentration. Although a significant correlation does not always imply real cause, the results of multiple linear regression analysis suggest that the variability of cyanobacterial biomass and cellular microcystin concentration is influenced by salinity and total phosphorus, respectively. The weak cyanobacterial biomass-microcystin relationship, coupled with the fact that microcystin was present in concentrations exceeding the WHO drinking water guidelines (1 μg L(-1)) in most of the collected samples, emphasizes the high risk of error connected to the traditional indirect microcystin risk assessment method.

Toxic cyanobacteria blooms are increasing in magnitude and frequency worldwide. However, this issue has not been adequately addressed in Malaysia. Therefore, this study aims to better understand eutrophication levels, cyanobacteria diversity, and microcystin concentrations in ten Malaysian freshwater lakes. The results revealed that most lakes were eutrophic, with total phosphorus and total chlorophyll-a concentrations ranging from 15 to 4270 µg L(-1) and 1.1 to 903.1 µg L(-1), respectively. Cyanobacteria were detected in all lakes, and identified as Microcystis spp., Planktothrix spp., Phormidium spp., Oscillatoria spp., and Lyngbya spp. Microcystis spp. was the most commonly observed and most abundant cyanobacteria recorded. Semi-quantitative microcystin analysis indicated the presence of microcystin in all lakes. These findings illustrate the potential health risk of cyanobacteria in Malaysia freshwater lakes, thus magnifying the importance of cyanobacteria monitoring and management in Malaysian waterways.

An innovative framework for optimising investments in water quality monitoring has been developed for use by water and environmental agencies. By utilising historical data, investigating the accuracy of monitoring methods and considering the risk tolerance of the management agency, this new methodology calculates optimum water quality monitoring frequencies for individual water bodies. Such information can be applied to water quality constituents of concern in both engineered and natural water bodies and will guide the investment of monitoring resources. Here we present both the development of the framework itself and a proof of concept by applying it to the occurrence of hazardous cyanobacterial blooms in freshwater lakes. This application to existing data demonstrates the robustness of the approach and the capacity of the framework to optimise the allocation of both monitoring and mitigation resources. When applied to cyanobacterial blooms in the Swan Coastal Plain of Western Australia, we determined that optimising the monitoring regime at individual lakes could greatly alter the overall monitoring schedule for the region, rendering it more risk averse without increasing the amount of monitoring resources required. For water resources with high-density temporal data related to constituents of concern, a similar reduction in risk may be observed by applying the framework.

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Alert level frameworks advise agencies on a sequence of monitoring and management actions, and are implemented so as to reduce the risk of the public coming into contact with hazardous substances. Their effectiveness relies on the detection of the hazard, but with many systems not receiving any regular monitoring, pollution events often go undetected. We developed toxicological risk assessment models for acute and chronic exposure to pollutants that incorporate the probabilities that the public will come into contact with undetected pollution events, to identify the level of risk a system poses in regards to the pollutant. As a proof of concept, we successfully demonstrated that the models could be applied to determine probabilities of acute and chronic illness types related to recreational activities in waterbodies containing cyanotoxins. Using the acute model, we identified lakes that present a ‘high’ risk to develop Day Away From Work illness, and lakes that present a ‘low’ or ‘medium’ risk to develop First Aid Cases when used for swimming. The developed risk models succeeded in categorising lakes according to their risk level to the public in an objective way. Modelling by how much the probability of public exposure has to decrease to lower the risks to acceptable levels will enable authorities to identify suitable control measures and monitoring strategies. We suggest broadening the application of these models to other contaminants.

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Abstract. Toxic cyanobacterial blooms in urban lakes present serious health hazards to humans and animals and require effective management strategies. In the management of toxic cyanobacteria blooms, understanding the roles of environmental factors is crucial. To date, a range of environmental factors have been proposed as potential triggers for the spatiotemporal variability of cyanobacterial biomass and microcystins in freshwater systems. However, the environmental triggers of cyanobacteria and microcystin variability remain a subject of debate due to contrasting findings. This issue has raised the question if the environmental triggers are site-specific and unique between water bodies. In this study, we investigated the site-specificity of environmental triggers for cyanobacterial bloom and cyanotoxins dynamics. Our study suggests that cyanobacterial dominance and cyanobacterial microcystin content variability were significantly correlated to phosphorus and iron concentrations. However, the correlations between phosphorus and iron with cyanobacterial biomass and microcystin variability were not consistent between lakes, thus suggesting a site specificity of these environmental factors. The discrepancies in the correlations could be explained by differences in local nutrient concentration and the cyanobacterial community in the systems. The findings of this study suggest that identification of site-specific environmental factors under unique local conditions is an important strategy to enhance positive outcomes in cyanobacterial bloom control measures.

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