By altering or eliminating delicate ecological relationships, non-indigenous species are considered a major threat to biodiversity, as well as a driver of environmental change. Global climate change affects ecosystems and ecological communities, leading to changes in the phenology, geographic ranges, or population abundance of several species. Thus, predicting the impacts of global climate change on the current and future distribution of invasive species is an important subject in macroecological studies. The African clawed frog (Xenopus laevis), native to South Africa, possesses a strong invasion potential and populations have become established in numerous countries across four continents. The global invasion potential of X. laevis was assessed using correlative species distribution models (SDMs). SDMs were computed based on a comprehensive set of occurrence records covering South Africa, North America, South America and Europe and a set of nine environmental predictors. Models were built using both a maximum entropy model and an ensemble approach integrating eight algorithms. The future occurrence probabilities for X. laevis were subsequently computed using bioclimatic variables for 2070 following four different IPCC scenarios. Despite minor differences between the statistical approaches, both SDMs predict the future potential distribution of X. laevis, on a global scale, to decrease across all climate change scenarios. On a continental scale, both SDMs predict decreasing potential distributions in the species’ native range in South Africa, as well as in the invaded areas in North and South America, and in Australia where the species has not been introduced. In contrast, both SDMs predict the potential range size to expand in Europe. Our results suggest that all probability classes will be equally affected by climate change. New regional conditions may promote new invasions or the spread of established invasive populations, especially in France and Great Britain.

BackgroundInvasive species are among the most significant threats to biodiversity. The diet of invasive animal populations is a crucial factor that must be considered in the context of biological invasions. A broad dietary spectrum is a frequently cited characteristic of invasive species, allowing them to thrive in a wide range of environments. Therefore, empirical studies comparing diet in invasive and native populations are necessary to understand dietary requirements, dietary flexibility, and the associated impacts of invasive species.MethodsIn this study, we compared the diet of populations of the African clawed frog, Xenopus laevis in its native range, with several areas where it has become invasive. Each prey category detected in stomach contents was assigned to an ecological category, allowing a comparison of the diversity of ecological traits among the prey items in the diet of native and introduced populations. The comparison of diets was also performed using evenness as a niche breadth index on all sampled populations, and electivity as a prey selection index for three out of the six sampled populations.ResultsOur results showed that diet breadth could be either narrow or broad in invasive populations. According to diet and prey availability, zooplankton was strongly preferred in most cases. In lotic environments, zooplankton was replaced by benthic preys, such as ephemeropteran larvae.DiscussionThe relative proportions of prey with different ecological traits, and dietary variability within and between areas of occurrence, suggest that X. laevis is a generalist predator in both native and invasive populations. Shifts in the realized trophic niche are observed, and appear related to resource availability. Xenopus laevis may strongly impact aquatic ecosystems because of its near complete aquatic lifestyle and its significant consumption of key taxa for the trophic relationships in ponds.

The widespread African clawed frog (Xenopus laevis) occurs in sympatry with the IUCN Endangered Cape platanna (Xenopus gilli) throughout its entire range in the south-western Cape, South Africa. In order to investigate aspects of the interspecific competition between populations of X. laevis and X. gilli, an assessment of their niche differentiation was conducted through a comprehensive study on food composition and trophic niche structure at two study sites: the Cape of Good Hope (CoGH) and Kleinmond. A total of 399 stomach contents of X. laevis (n = 183) and X. gilli (n = 216) were obtained together with samples of available prey to determine food preferences using the Electivity index (E*), the Simpson’s index of diversity (1 − D), the Shannon index (H′), and the Pianka index (Ojk). Xenopus gilli diet was more diverse than X. laevis, particularly in Kleimond where the Shannon index was nearly double. Both species were found to consume large amounts of tadpoles belonging to different amphibian species, including congeners, with an overall higher incidence of anurophagy than previously recorded. However, X. laevis also feeds on adult X. gilli, thus representing a direct threat for the latter. While trophic niche overlap was 0.5 for the CoGH, it was almost 1 in Kleinmond, suggesting both species utilise highly congruent trophic niches. Further, subdividing the dataset into three size classes revealed overlap to be higher in small frogs in both study sites. Our study underlines the importance of actively controlling X. laevis at sites with X. gilli in order to limit competition and predation, which is vital for conservation of the south-western Cape endemic.