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The Baltic Sea is a shallow, semi-enclosed brackish sea suffering like many other coastal seas from eutrophication caused by human impact. Hence, nutrient load abatement strategies are intensively discussed. With the help of a high-resolution, coupled physical-biogeochemical circulation model we investigate the combined impact of changing nutrient loads from land and changing climate during the 21st century as projected from a global climate model regionalized to the Baltic Sea region. Novel compared to previous studies are an extraordinary spin-up based upon historical reconstructions of atmospheric, nutrient load and runoff forcing, revised nutrient load scenarios and a comparison of nutrient load scenario simulations with and without changing climate. We found in almost all scenario simulations, with differing nutrient inputs, reduced eutrophication and improved ecological state compared to the reference period 1976-2005. This result is a long-lasting consequence of ongoing nutrient load reductions since the 1980s. Only in case of combined high-end nutrient load and climate scenarios, eutrophication is reinforced. Differences compared to earlier studies are explained by the experimental setup including nutrient loads during the historical period and by the projected nutrient loads. We found that the impact of warming climate may amplify the effects of eutrophication and primary production. However, effects of changing climate, within the range of considered greenhouse gas emission scenarios, are smaller than effects of considered nutrient load changes, in particular under low nutrient conditions. Hence, nutrient load reductions following the Baltic Sea Action Plan will lead to improved environmental conditions independently of future climate change.

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The effects of implementing Directive 91/271/EEC of 21 May 1991 (Waste Water Treatment Plan Directive) and Directive 91/676/EEC of 12 December (Nitrates Directive) are analysed in 7 Portuguese estuaries (Minho, Lima, Douro, Mondego, Tagus, Sado and Guadiana) and two coastal lagoons (Ria de Aveiro and Ria Formosa), with a modelling approach. MOHID Water Modelling System was used to perform simulations with three nitrogen load scenarios for each system: a reference scenario, a 50% nitrate removal by agriculture scenario and another with a 100% nutrients removal by waste water treatment plants (WWTP). It is shown that the interaction between hydrodynamic and ecological processes is an important feature to study trophic problems in estuaries. Ecological processes such as primary production only occur inside the system if the residence time of water is high enough to enable organismal activity and if the adequate conditions are found (e.g. light, nutrients, temperature). From the model results it is possible to conclude: (i) in systems with short residence time a reduction in nutrient load will only produce a decrease in nutrient transit and will not affect the system's global ecological status (e.g. Douro Estuary); (ii) in systems with long residence time the effects will range from significant, when primary production is mostly limited by nutrients (e.g. Ria de Aveiro), to non-significant, when primary production in the system is light-limited (e.g. Tagus Estuary).