The purpose of the present paper is to investigate the hydrological components of the Aison River Basin in northern Greece. The orography of the area and the increasing irrigation needs require a specifically adapted hydrological model in order to address water management issues. With this aim in view, a parsimonious lumped simulation-optimization model with a snowmelt routine is elaborated in a monthly time step. The Nelder-Mead algorithm is applied for automatic optimization of the model parameters using the Nash criterion as an objective function. The model results are also evaluated by additional statistical criteria. In order to further reduce data uncertainty influence, annual actual evapotranspiration values are compared with those derived using three empirical methods (Turk, Coutagne and Schreiber methods). Model outputs were shown to be a good estimation of the hydrological cycle components, indicating that water losses represent almost 62% of the total precipitation volume.
Abstract.A combined regional drought analysis and forecast is elaborated and applied to the Aison River Basin (Greece). The historical frequency, duration and severity were estimated using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) computed on variable time scales, while short-term drought forecast was investigated by means of 3-D loglinear models. A quasi-association model with homogenous diagonal effect was proposed to fit the observed frequencies of class transitions of the SPI values computed on the 12-month time scale. Then, an adapted submodel was selected for each data set through the backward elimination method. The analysis and forecast of the drought class transition probabilities were based on the odds of the expected frequencies, estimated by these submodels, and the respective confidence intervals of these odds. The parsimonious forecast models fitted adequately the observed data. Results gave a comprehensive insight on drought behavior, highlighting a dominant drought period (1988)(1989)(1990)(1991) with extreme drought events and revealing, in most cases, smooth drought class transitions. The proposed approach can be an efficient tool in regional water resources management and short-term drought warning, especially in irrigated districts.
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