For several years, the Zambian economy relied on the mining sector, which has been affected by fluctuations in commodity prices. The new century enhanced the calls for economic diversification, with the agricultural, manufacturing, and services sectors amongst those pronounced. This article focused on the role of agriculture in supporting the economy, particularly, the effect of agriculture on economic growth. The data analyzed was reviewed for the period 1983–2017. The ARDL Bounds Test was applied in order to meet the said objectives. The ECM results suggest that agriculture, manufacturing, services, and mining converge to an equilibrium and affect economic growth at the speed of adjustment of 90.6%, with the effect from agriculture, mining, and services being significant. The impact of agriculture on economic growth was significant in both the short-run and long-run, with coefficient unit effects of 0.428 and 0.342, respectively. The effects are strong because more than two-thirds of the rural population rely on farming, and agriculture has stood as a catalyst for food security. For the effect of agriculture to be much more profound, farmers must be supported with adequate infrastructure, accessibility to markets, farming inputs, better irrigation techniques, which would address the problem of reliance on rain, all of which were inconsistent in the last decade. Additionally, governments must ensure the institutionalization of food processing industries which add more value to the national income.

This study explains trade regimes in Kenya from a History of Economic Thought (HET) perspective using secondary materials (books, papers, and original manuscripts). We found that the pre-colonial era (before 1895) had a mixture of Classical doctrines and Mercantilism, whereby long-distance and barter trade between communities were practiced. Nonetheless, certain communities restricted trade. Classical economic thought was practiced in the colonial period (1895-1962), whereby agricultural produce was exported and less expensive consumables were imported. The post-colonial period started with a Mercantilism approach (Importsubstitution), but successive regimes have promoted Classical doctrines of trade by reducing import and export barriers and creating trade-promotion institutions. Trade in services, which is topical in international trade, has also been promoted in this regime.

This paper establishes the determinants of the export durability of agriculture products in Zambia with specific attention to maize, sugar, cotton, and tobacco between 1996 and 2019. We find that approximately 39% of Zambia’s agricultural products were exported beyond the first year of trading and less than 10% lasted up to 6 years of trading. The mean and median duration of exporting agricultural products in Zambia was 1.7 years and 1 year, respectively. Among the products, maize had the highest export duration after the first year of trading, followed by sugar, tobacco, and cotton. Results of the discrete-time logit and probit models with random effects revealed that the duration of total agricultural products was significantly impacted by common colony, contiguity, partner’s gross domestic product (GDP), Zambia’s GDP, initial exports, and total exports. Of these factors, colonial history and Zambia’s GDP reduced export duration, while contiguity, partner’s GDP, initial exports, and total exports increased the durability of exports in Zambia. The effect of Zambia’s GDP was uniform across all individual agricultural products. Total exports also significantly impacted all other agriculture products in a similar manner except for maize. Export durability for cotton was significantly impacted by the Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs), while the export durability of tobacco was significantly impacted by distance, contiguity, and partner’s GDP. To increase the duration of agriculture exports, we propose the exporting of finished agriculture products (and not just raw materials), which have a higher market value and duration probability. Farmers also need support with export subsidies, increased foreign market access (especially to economies with higher buying power), and negotiated favorable trade terms in the region and around the globe.

This study uses annual customs transaction data (HS six‐digit) for the period 2006–2018 to analyse the impact of average tariffs on the export sales, margins and survival of firms in Kenya. Results from the fixed‐effects regression model reveal that a 1% increase in tariffs reduces exports by 0.181% and the intensive margin by 0.183% but does not affect the extensive margin. Meanwhile, the cloglog fixed‐effects duration model reveals that a 1% increase in tariffs reduces export survival by 2.7%. This suggests that cutting tariffs, possibly through trade agreements, can help firms and countries improve their export performance.

This study establishes the hazard rate of exports from Kenya and identifies factors that explain the duration of exports using a discrete‐time random effects logit regression model. A difference‐in‐differences estimator is used to assess the effects of AGOA. Export data between Kenya and 176 partners over 21 years (1995–2016) is used. We find that first‐year survival rate is 39%. The median duration of Kenya’s exports is 1 year. AGOA enhances export survival, especially for apparels. COMESA also increases export survival but EAC has a dampening effect, even in SSA region. Differentiated products unlike capital‐intensive products improve export survival.