Introduction and Aims
The COVID-19 pandemic originated from the city of Wuhan of China has highly affected the health, socio-economic and financial matters of the different countries of the world. India is one of the countries which is affected by the disease and thousands of people on daily basis are getting infected. In this paper, an analysis of daily statistics of people affected by the disease are taken into account to predict the next days trend in the active cases in Odisha as well as India.
Material and methods
A valid global data set is collected from the WHO daily statistics and correlation among the total confirmed, active, deceased, positive cases are stated in this paper. Regression model such as Linear and Multiple Linear Regression techniques are applied to the data set to visualize the trend of the affected cases.
Results
Here a comparison of Linear Regression and Multiple Linear Regression model is performed where the score of the model
tends to be 0.99 and 1.0 which indicates a strong prediction model to forecast the next coming days active cases. Using the Multiple Linear Regression model as on July month, the forecast value of 52,290 active cases are predicted towards the next month of 15th August in India and 9,358 active cases in Odisha if situation continues like this way.
Conclusion
These models acquired remarkable accuracy in COVID-19 recognition. A strong correlation factor determines the relationship among the dependent (active) with the independent variables (positive, deceased, recovered).
Purpose
Forecasting of stock indices is a challenging issue because stock data are dynamic, non-linear and uncertain in nature. Selection of an accurate forecasting model is very much essential to predict the next-day closing prices of the stock indices. The purpose of this paper is to develop an efficient and accurate forecasting model to predict the next-day closing prices of seven stock indices.
Design/methodology/approach
A novel strategy called quasi-oppositional symbiotic organisms search-based extreme learning machine (QSOS-ELM) is proposed to forecast the next-day closing prices effectively. Accuracy in the prediction of closing price depends on output weights which are dependent on input weights and biases. This paper mainly deals with the optimal design of input weights and biases of the ELM prediction model using QSOS and SOS optimization algorithms.
Findings
Simulation is carried out on seven stock indices, and performance analysis of QSOS-ELM and SOS-ELM prediction models is done by taking various statistical measures such as mean square error, mean absolute percentage error, accuracy and paired sample t-test. Comparative performance analysis reveals that the QSOS-ELM model outperforms the SOS-ELM model in predicting the next-day closing prices more accurately for all the seven stock indices under study.
Originality/value
The QSOS-ELM prediction model and SOS-ELM are developed for the first time to predict the next-day closing prices of various stock indices. The paired t-test is also carried out for the first time in literature to hypothetically prove that there is a zero mean difference between the predicted and actual closing prices.
Technological progress raises the stock and shares market analysis. Specific mathematical and machine learning methods improve decision-making. Major research work focused on the stock price forecast feature based on historical rates and volume. In this work, TCS stock index analyzes the performance measurements using statistical methods in Python environment. In this analysis, the results obtained are superior to the existing methods. The methods for analyzing the financial market are based on a multiple linear regression using backward elimination method. This paper focuses on the best independent variables to forecast the stock market's closing price. This research is used to find specific variables that show the greatest effect on closing price prediction. Keywords Stock market • Linear regression • Multiple linear regression •
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.