From 1954 to 1961, pulmonary function was assessed in 2,718 British men by forced expiratory maneuvers, and mucus hypersecretion and smoking habits were assessed by questionnaires. In 20 to 25 yr of follow-up, 104 men (all of whom had smoked) died of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). The risk of death from COPD was strongly correlated with the initial degree of air-flow obstruction. Among men with similar initial air-flow obstruction, however, age-specific COPD death rates were not significantly related to initial mucus hypersecretion, supporting the concept that air-flow obstruction and mucus hypersecretion are largely independent disease processes. A moderate relationship existed between initial mucus hypersecretion and subsequent lung cancer mortality, but it is not known whether this was due solely to a common correlation of both conditions with the effective degree of exposure of the large bronchi to causative factors such as tobacco smoke.

Results of three consecutive completed UK trials (1980)(1981)(1982)(1983)(1984)(1985)(1986)(1987)(1988)(1989)(1990)(1991)(1992)(1993)(1994)(1995)(1996)(1997) for childhood lymphoblastic leukaemia are presented. National accrual has progressively increased so that over 90% of all the country's ALL cases were treated on the latest trial reported, UKALLXI. From 1980 to 1990, event-free and overall survival progressively improved, following adoption of an American therapy template and use of two post-remission intensification modules. Since 1990 despite demonstration of the benefit of a third intensification module overall event-free survival (EFS) has not improved further. Survival remains high due to a good retrieval rate especially for those relapsing off treatment after receipt of two intensification pulses. Possible reasons for the plateau in event-free survival (including type and dose of induction steroid, dropping of induction anthracycline, type and dose of asparaginase, gaps early in therapy following intensification, and overall lack of compliance in maintenance) are being explored in the latest protocol ALL '97. Cranial irradiation had been successfully replaced by a long course of intrathecal methotrexate injections for the majority of patients. Age (Ͻ1 year Ͼ10 years) sex (male) and white count Ͼ50 × 10 9 /l plus slow initial bone marrow clearance were consistently the most important independent prognostic indicators during this time period. Rome/NCI criteria accurately predict standard and highrisk groups for B cell lineage, but not consistently for T cell disease. This international collaborative venture might help us to define those truly at highest risk, and how we can optimise therapy for specific subgroups including T-ALL and those with unfavourable cytogenetics. Leukemia (2000) 14, 2307-2320.

We have examined the factors influencing prognosis in over 4000 children with acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) aged 1-14 who have been treated on consecutive MRC UKALL trials from 1972 to 1990. During this time the results of treatment have improved steadily but are consistently superior in girls when compared with boys; the 5-year event-free survival in girls improving from 51% to 71% and in boys from 31% to 57%. These results were independent of age and presenting leucocyte count. Boys not only had a testicular relapse rate of 10% but an excess of bone marrow relapse, particularly evident after 2 years from diagnosis. Other prognostic factors included organomegaly and the morphology of leukaemic blast cells; immunophenotype of the leukaemia, however, had no independent significance after allowance for age, sex and leucocyte count. The influence of sex on prognosis was reaffirmed when we examined various methods of identifying children at highest risk of treatment failure for whom alternative therapy such as bone marrow transplantation might be justified. In MRC UKALL X children had been deemed 'high risk' on the basis of leucocyte count alone, but with further follow-up it has become apparent that girls with an initial leucocyte count of > 100 x 10(9)/l have a similar prognosis to boys with a lower count. We therefore derived a risk score based on sex, age and count which has given better discrimination between standard risk (66% 5-year survival) and poor risk (39%) survival than other methods. This group of worse-risk children includes 16% of boys but only 3% of all girls. Gender remains an important prognostic factor in UKALL trials and there are very few girls who are at highest risk of treatment failure. The reasons for this remain unclear, but the pattern of relapses suggests that boys more often get inadequate systemic therapy. We postulate that the reasons for treatment failure may relate to sensitivity to continuing (maintenance) chemotherapy.

The benefits of achieving a long term event free survival of 60-70% by using increasingly intense treatment regimens must be weighed against the increased risk of treatment toxicity. From 1985 to 1990, 1612 children with childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) in the UK were treated on MRC UKALL X with intensive induction therapy, central nervous system directed therapy (cranial irradiation and intrathecal methotrexate), and continuing treatment for two years. There was a randomisation to receive blocks of additional intensification treatment at five weeks, 20 weeks, not at all, or both. The five year disease free survival was 71% for children randomised to two blocks of intensification, a 14% improvement on children randomised to no intensification treatment.Treatment related mortality in this national multicentre study has been analysed for induction and first remission (including those after intensification treatment). There were 38 induction deaths, 2*3% and 53 deaths in first remission, 3/3% (including those from a second malignancy). Thirty one (84%) of the induction deaths followed an infection: bacterial in 22 and fungal in nine. Thirty seven infective remission deaths occurred: bacterial in 11, viral in 16, fungal in seven, and three caused by Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia. Ten of these deaths followed a block of intensification treatment. The majority of noninfective remission deaths followed the development of a second tumour.Risk analysis for an induction death showed girls and children with Down's syndrome to be at greater risk. For deaths in first remission analysis showed an *Members of the working party during MRC UKALL X were:

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