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Abstract. Long-term time series of physical and chemical parameters collected between 1960 and 2010 along the Palagruža Sill transect, Middle Adriatic Sea, have been investigated in terms of average water properties and their variability. Nutrients, especially orthophosphates, reached rather high levels of concentration below the euphotic zone between 1991 and 1998, the highest levels in the investigated period. Simultaneously, the N:P ratio, which is normally higher than 25:1, decreased to values less than 16:1 in the euphotic zone, indicating a switch from typical phosphorus to nitrogen-limited preconditioning for the primary production. Higher-than-usual nutrient levels peaking in the mid1990s, coupled with lower-than-usual temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen and pH values, are presumably related to the flow of the nutrient richer Western Mediterranean waters to the Adriatic below the euphotic layer. These waters, which keep their footprint in the N:P ratio, enter the Adriatic during the anticyclonic phase of the Bimodal Adriatic-Ionian Oscillation (BiOS), which has been uniquely strengthened by the Eastern Mediterranean Transient occurring in the early 1990s. This hypothesis should be confirmed through targeted research and modelling exercises, as it is highly relevant for the biogeochemistry of the Adriatic Sea.

Interannual variability of the primary production in the middle Adriatic Sea for the period 1961–2002 was examined and correlated to the various atmospheric and oceanographic parameters. The sequential t-test analysis of regime shift (STARS) method and locally-weighted scatter plot smoothing (LOWESS) method were applied to the primary production, revealing the new regime with significantly different mean productivity ranging from 1980–1996. Moreover, this period with the highest primary production, consists of the two distinguished sub-periods: periods of increasing (1980–1986) and decreasing (1987–1996) primary production. Whereas in the first period the ecosystem was under the influence of warmer and nutrient richer Levantine Intermediate Water (LIW) intrusions into the Adriatic, in the second period, which started with a cold winter in 1987, the Eastern Mediterranean Transient (EMT) occurred. The EMT established a new circulation regime which prevented the LIW intrusions in the Adriatic, causing its reduced productivity. Reduced LIW inflow in the Adriatic was evidenced in the lower than normal sea temperature, salinity and oxygen concentrations below the thermocline depth. Precipitation and wind regime also arose as important local factors for the primary production variability. Our analysis connected the shifts in primary production with hemispheric and regional scale climate variations, and supports the hypothesis that atmospheric variability can trigger the ecosystem changes.

Evaluation of a 45-year data set of primary production (PP), a 30-year data set of phytoplankton biomass, and a 51-year data set of species composition shows an increase of phytoplankton biomass and abundance in the period from the mid-1980s to the mid-1990s. Phytoplankton biomass showed bimodal seasonal cycles, with winter and spring maxima, which did not change over the past 30 years. Diatoms were the most abundant functional group and they prevailed during the colder part of the year while the dinoflagellate contribution to the phytoplankton community increased in the warmer period from May to August. Diatoms showed a significant negative correlation with sea surface temperature (SST), while dinoflagellates were positively correlated with SST. An increase of phytoplankton abundance, particularly dinoflagellate, in the period from the mid-1980s to the mid-1990s coincided with years characterized by a high North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. Primary production and chlorophyll a concentration in the spring period were negatively correlated with the NAO winter (DJFM) index, probably caused by increased precipitation associated with a low or negative NAO index. PP in winter during the mixing period was positively related to the NAO winter index associated with higher temperatures and dry conditions which brought more clear days and increased input of solar radiation.

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