Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task because of the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Inaccurate forecasts can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. One of the key challenges is the unavailability of a consistent and robust set of metrics to measure the accuracy of a solar forecast. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, and applications) that were developed as part of the U.S. Department of Energy SunShot Initiative's efforts to improve the accuracy of solar forecasting. In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design-of-experiments methodology in conjunction with response surface, sensitivity analysis, and nonparametric statistical testing methods. The three types of forecasting improvements are (i) uniform improvements when there is not a ramp, (ii) ramp forecasting magnitude improvements, and (iii) ramp forecasting threshold changes. Day-ahead and 1-hourahead forecasts for both simulated and actual solar power plants are analyzed. The results show that the proposed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts and assess the economic and reliability impacts of improved solar forecasting. Sensitivity analysis results show that (i) all proposed metrics are suitable to show the changes in the accuracy of solar forecasts with uniform forecasting improvements, and (ii) the metrics of skewness, kurtosis, and Rényi entropy are specifically suitable to show the changes in the accuracy of solar forecasts with ramp forecasting improvements and a ramp forecasting threshold.

We report the observation of photocurrent in silicon nanowires induced by nonradiative resonant energy transfer (NRET) from adjacent layers of lead sulfide nanocrystal quantum dots using time-resolved photocurrent measurements. This demonstration supports the feasibility of a new solar cell paradigm (Lu, S.; Madhukar, A. Nano Lett. 2007, 7, 3443-3451) that exploits NRET between efficient photon absorbers and adjacent nanowire/quantum well high-mobility charge transport channels and could offer a viable alternative to the limitations of carrier transport and collection faced by excitonic solar cells.

Evidence is provided for nonradiative resonant energy transfer (NRET) from excitons in nanocrystal quantum dots (NCQDs) to the confined states of an adjacent quantum well (QW) at low excitation power and rate competitive with the quantum dot radiative decay. This indicates that NRET in optimized NCQD-QW/nanowire systems may provide a solar energy conversion approach with a viable tradeoff with the bottlenecks of charge carrier generation and/or transport to/in electrodes faced by excitonic solar cells.

We present a new approach to ligand exchange on lead sulfide (PbS) quantum dots (QDs) in which the QDs are reacted with preformed Pb cation-ligand exchange units designed to promote reactions that replace surface Pb and oleate groups on the as-grown QDs. This process introduces negligible surface defects as the high quantum efficiency (∼55%) of the as-grown QDs is maintained. Infrared spectroscopy and electron microscopy are used to confirm the replacement of ligands and time-resolved photoluminescence to demonstrate the expected inverse sixth power dependence of the nonradiative resonant energy transfer rate on inter-QD spacing.

11The value of day-ahead solar power forecasting improvements was analyzed by simulating the 12 operation of the Independent System Operator -New England (ISO-NE) power system under a 13 range of scenarios with varying solar power penetrations and solar power forecasting 14 improvements. The results showed how the integration of solar power decreased operational 15 electricity generation costs, by decreasing fuel and variable operation and maintenance costs, 16 while decreasing start and shutdown costs of fossil fueled conventional generators. Solar power 17forecasting improvements changed the impacts that the uncertainty of solar power has on bulk 18 power system operations; electricity generation from the fast start and lower efficiency power 19 plants, ramping of all generators, start and shutdown costs, and solar power curtailment were all 20 reduced. These impacts led to a reduction in overall operational electricity generation costs in the 21 system that translates into an annual economic value for improving solar power forecasting. 22 23 24 33 There is a growing need for solar power forecasting, especially for power systems in which solar 34 power represents a significant share of the electricity generation mix. Several balancing 35 authorities already use solar power forecasting technologies in their daily operations, including 36