As global climate change has a large effect on the structure and function of vegetation, it is very important to understand how forests in climate transition regions respond to climate change. The present study investigates the net primary productivity (NPP) of two planted forests (Robinia pseudoacacia and Pinus tabulaeformis) and one natural forest (Quercus wutaishanica) from 1951–2100 using the LPJ-GUESS model in the Shaanxi province of China, which is a typical transition region from humid to dry climates. We found that: (1) Future annual precipitation and mean temperature exhibited nonsignificant and significant increasing trend in the region, respectively, indicating a drier climate in future; (2) although precipitation would increase in the dry area and decrease in the humid area, the NPP of each species in the dry area would be lower than that of the humid area, possibly because increasing temperature and CO2 concentration could restrain forest growth in dry areas and promote forest growth in humid areas; (3) of the three species, P. tabulaeformis forest exhibited the highest average NPP and R. pseudoacacia forest exhibited the highest NPP trend in both dry and humid areas, indicating these planted species may be adaptable to future climate change. Our results provide novel insights into the potential response of forest productivity to a changing climate in the transition region from humid to dry climates.
Climate change has affected the dynamics of the water cycle and its consequent effects on water resources in many regions. The Buyuan River, the largest tributary of the Upper Mekong River, is one of the regions with the strongest climate change in the Mekong River Basin, and its cross‐border impact on water resources has received increasing attention. However, few studies have focused on the runoff responses to future climate change in the Buyuan River Basin (BRB). In this study, the MIKE SHE model was applied to estimate the runoff of the BRB, based on climate‐change scenarios from the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC‐CSM1‐1) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The simulations predicted a slight decrease in the mean annual runoff of the BRB under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios (2020–2049) compared with the reference period (1959–2012), with an increase in the magnitude of inter‐annual variation, leading to increased deficit and surplus during dry and wet years. The simulations predicted the earlier maximum monthly runoff and a more evenly distributed annual distribution of the runoff under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios as compared to the reference period. The arrival of the flood season in the BRB was advanced by a month under future climate‐change scenarios. The results showed that the average annual runoff of the BRB does not change significantly under future climate‐change scenarios. However, there are obvious changes in the inter‐annual and intra‐annual distribution of the runoff.
As global climate change has a large effect on the carbon cycle of forests, it is very important to understand how forests in climate transition regions respond to climate change. Specifically, the LPJ-GUESS (Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator) model was used to simulate net ecosystem productivity (NEP) and soil heterotrophic respiration (Rh) dynamics of two forest ecosystems of different origins between 1951 and 2100, to quantitatively analyze the carbon source and sink functions and potential changes in soil carbon dynamics in arid and humid regions under future climate change, simulate the dynamics of forest net primary productivity (NPP) under different climatic factors, and analyze the sensitivity of forests in arid and humid regions to temperature, precipitation, and carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration. We found that: (1) in both the historical and future periods, the average NEP of both studied forests in the humid region was larger than that in the arid region, the carbon sink function of the humid region being predicted to become stronger and the arid zone possibly becoming a carbon source; (2) between 1951 and 2100, the forest soil Rh in the arid region was lower than that in the humid region and under future climate change, forest in the humid region may have higher soil carbon loss; (3) increasing temperature had a negative effect and CO2 concentration had a positive effect on the forests in the study area, and forests in arid areas are more sensitive to precipitation change. We believe our research could be applied to help policy makers in planning sustainable forest management under future climate change.
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