Background In recent years, both suicide and overdose rates have been increasing. Many individuals who struggle with opioid use disorder are prone to suicidal ideation; this may often result in overdose. However, these fatal overdoses are difficult to classify as intentional or unintentional. Intentional overdose is difficult to detect, partially due to the lack of predictors and social stigmas that push individuals away from seeking help. These individuals may instead use web-based means to articulate their concerns. Objective This study aimed to extract posts of suicidality among opioid users on Reddit using machine learning methods. The performance of the models is derivative of the data purity, and the results will help us to better understand the rationale of these users, providing new insights into individuals who are part of the opioid epidemic. Methods Reddit posts between June 2017 and June 2018 were collected from r/suicidewatch, r/depression, a set of opioid-related subreddits, and a control subreddit set. We first classified suicidal versus nonsuicidal languages and then classified users with opioid usage versus those without opioid usage. Several traditional baselines and neural network (NN) text classifiers were trained using subreddit names as the labels and combinations of semantic inputs. We then attempted to extract out-of-sample data belonging to the intersection of suicide ideation and opioid abuse. Amazon Mechanical Turk was used to provide labels for the out-of-sample data. Results Classification results were at least 90% across all models for at least one combination of input; the best classifier was convolutional neural network, which obtained an F1 score of 96.6%. When predicting out-of-sample data for posts containing both suicidal ideation and signs of opioid addiction, NN classifiers produced more false positives and traditional methods produced more false negatives, which is less desirable for predicting suicidal sentiments. Conclusions Opioid abuse is linked to the risk of unintentional overdose and suicide risk. Social media platforms such as Reddit contain metadata that can aid machine learning and provide information at a personal level that cannot be obtained elsewhere. We demonstrate that it is possible to use NNs as a tool to predict an out-of-sample target with a model built from data sets labeled by characteristics we wish to distinguish in the out-of-sample target.
Objective The United States is experiencing an opioid epidemic. In recent years, there were more than 10 million opioid misusers aged 12 years or older annually. Identifying patients at high risk of opioid use disorder (OUD) can help to make early clinical interventions to reduce the risk of OUD. Our goal is to develop and evaluate models to predict OUD for patients on opioid medications using electronic health records and deep learning methods. The resulting models help us to better understand OUD, providing new insights on the opioid epidemic. Further, these models provide a foundation for clinical tools to predict OUD before it occurs, permitting early interventions. Methods Electronic health records of patients who have been prescribed with medications containing active opioid ingredients were extracted from Cerner’s Health Facts database for encounters between January 1, 2008, and December 31, 2017. Long short-term memory models were applied to predict OUD risk based on five recent prior encounters before the target encounter and compared with logistic regression, random forest, decision tree, and dense neural network. Prediction performance was assessed using F1 score, precision, recall, and area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve. Results The long short-term memory (LSTM) model provided promising prediction results which outperformed other methods, with an F1 score of 0.8023 (about 0.016 higher than dense neural network (DNN)) and an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.9369 (about 0.145 higher than DNN). Conclusions LSTM–based sequential deep learning models can accurately predict OUD using a patient’s history of electronic health records, with minimal prior domain knowledge. This tool has the potential to improve clinical decision support for early intervention and prevention to combat the opioid epidemic.
Introduction: Not enough is known about the epidemiology of opioid poisoning to tailor interventions to help address the growing opioid crisis in the U.S. The objective of this study is to expand the current understanding of opioid poisoning through the use of data analytics to evaluate geographic, temporal, and sociodemographic differences of opioid poisoning− related hospital visits in a region of New York State with high opioid poisoning rates. Methods: This retrospective cohort study utilized patient-level New York State all-payer hospital data (2010−2016) combined with Census data to evaluate geographic, patient, and community factors for 9,714 Long Island residents with an opioid poisoning−related inpatient or outpatient hospital facility discharge. Temporal, 7-year opioid poisoning rates and trends were evaluated, and geographic maps were generated. Overall, significance tests and tests for linear trend were based upon logistic regression. Analyses were completed between 2017 and 2018. Results: Since 2010, Long Island and New York State opioid poisoning hospital visit rates have increased 2.5-to 2.7-fold (p<0.001). Opioid poisoning hospital visit rates decreased for men, white patients, and self-payers (p<0.001) and increased for Medicare payers (p<0.001). Communities with high opioid poisoning rates had lower median home values, higher percentages of high school graduates, were younger, and more often white patients (p<0.01). Maps displayed geographic patterns of communities with high opioid poisoning rates overall and by age group. Conclusions: Findings highlight the changing demographics of the opioid poisoning epidemic and utility of data analytics tools to identify regions and patient populations to focus interventions. These population identification techniques can be applied in other communities and interventions.
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