An analysis of return on investment can help policy makers support, optimize, and advocate for the expansion of immunization programs in the world's poorest countries. We assessed the return on investment associated with achieving projected coverage levels for vaccinations to prevent diseases related to ten antigens in ninety-four low- and middle-income countries during 2011-20, the Decade of Vaccines. We derived these estimates by using costs of vaccines, supply chains, and service delivery and their associated economic benefits. Based on the costs of illnesses averted, we estimated that projected immunizations will yield a net return about 16 times greater than costs over the decade (uncertainty range: 10-25). Using a full-income approach, which quantifies the value that people place on living longer and healthier lives, we found that net returns amounted to 44 times the costs (uncertainty range: 27-67). Across all antigens, net returns were greater than costs. But to realize the substantial positive return on investment from immunization programs, it is essential that governments and donors provide the requisite investments.

ObjectiveTo estimate the economic impact likely to be achieved by efforts to vaccinate against 10 vaccine-preventable diseases between 2001 and 2020 in 73 low- and middle-income countries largely supported by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance.MethodsWe used health impact models to estimate the economic impact of achieving forecasted coverages for vaccination against Haemophilus influenzae type b, hepatitis B, human papillomavirus, Japanese encephalitis, measles, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, rotavirus, rubella, Streptococcus pneumoniae and yellow fever. In comparison with no vaccination, we modelled the costs – expressed in 2010 United States dollars (US$) – of averted treatment, transportation costs, productivity losses of caregivers and productivity losses due to disability and death. We used the value-of-a-life-year method to estimate the broader economic and social value of living longer, in better health, as a result of immunization.FindingsWe estimated that, in the 73 countries, vaccinations given between 2001 and 2020 will avert over 20 million deaths and save US$ 350 billion in cost of illness. The deaths and disability prevented by vaccinations given during the two decades will result in estimated lifelong productivity gains totalling US$ 330 billion and US$ 9 billion, respectively. Over the lifetimes of the vaccinated cohorts, the same vaccinations will save an estimated US$ 5 billion in treatment costs. The broader economic and social value of these vaccinations is estimated at US$ 820 billion.ConclusionBy preventing significant costs and potentially increasing economic productivity among some of the world’s poorest countries, the impact of immunization goes well beyond health.

While new mechanisms such as advance market commitments and co-financing policies of the GAVI Alliance are allowing low- and middle-income countries to gain access to vaccines faster than ever, understanding the full scope of vaccine program costs is essential to ensure adequate resource mobilization. This costing analysis examines the vaccine costs, supply chain costs, and service delivery costs of immunization programs for routine immunization and for supplemental immunization activities (SIAs) for vaccines related to 18 antigens in 94 countries across the decade, 2011-2020. Vaccine costs were calculated using GAVI price forecasts for GAVI-eligible countries, and assumptions from the PAHO Revolving Fund and UNICEF for middle-income countries not supported by the GAVI Alliance. Vaccine introductions and coverage levels were projected primarily based on GAVI's Adjusted Demand Forecast. Supply chain costs including costs of transportation, storage, and labor were estimated by developing a mechanistic model using data generated by the HERMES discrete event simulation models. Service delivery costs were abstracted from comprehensive multi-year plans for the majority of GAVI-eligible countries and regression analysis was conducted to extrapolate costs to additional countries. The analysis shows that the delivery of the full vaccination program across 94 countries would cost a total of $62 billion (95% uncertainty range: $43-$87 billion) over the decade, including $51 billion ($34-$73 billion) for routine immunization and $11 billion ($7-$17 billion) for SIAs. More than half of these costs stem from service delivery at $34 billion ($21-$51 billion)-with an additional $24 billion ($13-$41 billion) in vaccine costs and $4 billion ($3-$5 billion) in supply chain costs. The findings present the global costs to attain the goals envisioned during the Decade of Vaccines to prevent millions of deaths by 2020 through more equitable access to existing vaccines for people in all communities. By projecting the full costs of immunization programs, our findings may aid to garner greater country and donor commitments toward adequate resource mobilization and efficient allocation. As service delivery costs have increasingly become the main driver of vaccination program costs, it is essential to pay additional consideration to health systems strengthening.

HighlightsEstimated financing and funding gap for vaccine, supply chain and service delivery.Identified immunization funding gap: $7.6 billion over 2016–20 across 94 countries.On average, the funding gap represents 2.3% of government health expenditures.Largest funds needed for service delivery and supply chain to meet projected costs.