Abstract.Simulations of contrail-to-cirrus transition over up to 6 h were performed using a LES-model. The sensitivity of microphysical, optical and geometric contrail properties to relative humidity RH i , temperature T and vertical wind shear s was investigated in an extensive parametric study. The dominant parameter for contrail evolution is relative humidity. Substantial spreading is only visible for RH i 120%. Vertical wind shear has a smaller effect on optical properties than human observers might expect from the visual impression. Our model shows that after a few hours the water vapour removed by falling ice crystals from the contrail layer can be several times higher than the ice mass that is actually present in the contrail at any instance.
Large-eddy simulations (LES) with Lagrangian ice microphysics were used to study the early contrail evolution during the vortex phase. Microphysical and geometrical properties of a contrail produced by a large-sized aircraft (type B777/A340) were investigated systematically for a large parameter range. Crystal loss due to adiabatic heating in the downward moving vortices was found to depend strongly on relative humidity and temperature, qualitatively similar to previous 2-D simulation results. Contrail depth is as large as 450 m for the investigated parameter range and was found to be underestimated in a previous 2-D study. Further sensitivity studies show a nonnegligible effect of the initial ice crystal size distribution and the initial ice crystal number on the crystal loss, whereas the contrail structure and ice mass evolution is only barely affected by these variations. Variation of fuel flow has the smallest effect on crystal loss. At high supersaturations, our choice of contrail spatial initialization may underestimate the ice crystal loss. The set of presented sensitivity studies is a first step toward a quantitative description of young contrails in terms of vertical extent and crystal loss. Concluding contrail-to-cirrus simulations demonstrate the relevance of vortex phase processes and its three-dimensional modeling on the later contrail-cirrus properties.
Abstract. Contrail–cirrus is probably the largest climate forcing from aviation. The evolution of contrail–cirrus and its radiative impact depends not only on a multitude of atmospheric parameters, but also on the geometric and microphysical properties of the young contrails evolving into contrail–cirrus. The early evolution of contrails (t < 5 min) is dominated by an interplay of ice microphysics and wake vortex dynamics. Young contrails may undergo a fast vertical expansion due to a descent of the wake vortices and may lose a substantial fraction of their ice crystals due to adiabatic heating. The geometric depth H and total ice crystal number N of young contrails are highly variable and depend on many environmental and aircraft parameters. Both properties, H and N, affect the later properties of the evolving contrail–cirrus, as they control the extent of shear-induced spreading and sedimentation losses. In this study, we provide parametrisations of H and N after 5 min taking into account the effects of temperature, relative humidity, thermal stratification and aircraft type (mass, wing span, fuel burn). The parametrisations rely on a large data set of recent large-eddy simulations of young contrails. They are suited to be incorporated in larger-scale models in order to refine the present-day contrail initialisations by considering the processes that strongly affect the contrail evolution during the vortex phase.
Abstract. Aircraft contrails develop into contrail cirrus by depositional growth and sedimentation of ice particles and horizontal spreading due to wind shear. Factors controlling this development include temperature, ice supersaturation, thickness of ice-supersaturated layers, and vertical gradients in the horizontal wind field. An analytical microphysical cloud model is presented and validated that captures these processes. Many individual contrail cirrus are simulated that develop differently owing to the variability in the controlling factors, resulting in large samples of cloud properties that are statistically analyzed. Contrail cirrus development is studied over the first four hours past formation, similar to the ages of line-shaped contrails that were tracked in satellite imagery on regional scales. On these time scales, contrail cirrus optical depth and microphysical variables exhibit a marked variability, expressed in terms of broad and skewed probability distribution functions. Simulated mean optical depths at a wavelength of 0.55 μm range from 0.05-0.5 and a substantial fraction 20-50% of contrail cirrus stay subvisible (optical depth <0.02), depending on meteorological conditions. A detailed analysis based on an observational case study over the continental USA suggests that previous satellite measurements of line-shaped persistent contrails have missed about 89%, 50%, and 11% of contrails with optical depths 0-0.05, 0.05-0.1, and 0.1-0.2, respectively, amounting to 65% of contrail coverage of all optical depths. When comparing observations with simulations and when estimating the contrail cirrus climate impact, not only mean values but also the variability in optical depth and microphysical properties need to be considered.
Abstract.Simulations of contrail-to-cirrus transition were performed with an LES model. In Part 1 the impact of relative humidity, temperature and vertical wind shear was explored in a detailed parametric study. Here, we study atmospheric parameters like stratification and depth of the supersaturated layer and processes which may affect the contrail evolution. We consider contrails in various radiation scenarios herein defined by the season, time of day and the presence of lower-level cloudiness which controls the radiance incident on the contrail layer. Under suitable conditions, controlled by the radiation scenario and stratification, radiative heating lifts the contrail-cirrus and prolongs its lifetime. The potential of contrail-driven secondary nucleation is investigated. We consider homogeneous nucleation and heterogeneous nucleation of preactivated soot cores released from sublimated contrail ice crystals. In our model the contrail dynamics triggered by radiative heating does not suffice to force homogeneous freezing of ambient liquid aerosol particles. Furthermore, our model results suggest that heterogeneous nucleation of preactivated soot cores is unimportant. Contrail evolution is not controlled by the depth of the supersaturated layer as long as it exceeds roughly 500 m. Deep fallstreaks however need thicker layers. A variation of the initial ice crystal number is effective during the whole evolution of a contrail. A cut of the soot particle emission by two orders of magnitude can reduce the contrail timescale by one hour and the optical thickness by a factor of 5. Hence future engines with lower soot particle emissions could potentially lead to a reduction of the climate impact of aviation.
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