We consider the problem of ascertaining daily patterns using passive sensors to establish a baseline for elderly people living alone. The data are whether or not some movement, or human related activity, has occurred in the previous 15 min. We seek to segment the broad patterns within a day, for example, awake/sleep times or potentially more activity around meal-times. To address this problem we use changepoint detection which can segment the day into more/less active times. Traditional changepoint detection methods are inappropriate for these data as they fail to utilize the periodic nature of the data. The traditional assumption of conditional independence of the segments also hampers estimation of the within segment parameters. A new within-period changepoint detection scheme is proposed that instead assumes a circular perspective of the time axis. This permits the pooling of evidence of changepoint events from across multiple days. Inference is performed within the Bayesian framework by utilizing the reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler to explore the variable dimension parameter space. Simulations demonstrate that the sampler achieves high accuracy in approximating the posterior while being able to detect small segments. Application to four individuals from our industrial collaborator provides insights to their daily patterns.This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
This paper describes the R package mvLSW. The package contains a suite of tools for the analysis of multivariate locally stationary wavelet (LSW) time series. Key elements include: (i) the simulation of multivariate LSW time series for a given multivariate evolutionary wavelet spectrum (EWS); (ii) estimation of the time-dependent multivariate EWS for a given time series; (iii) estimation of the time-dependent coherence and partial coherence between time series channels; and, (iv) estimation of approximate confidence intervals for multivariate EWS estimates. A demonstration of the package is presented via both a simulated example and a case study with EuStockMarkets from the datasets package. This paper has been accepted by the Journal of Statistical Software. Presented code extracts demonstrating the mvLSW package is performed under version 1.2.1.
A change in the number of motor units that operate a particular muscle is an important indicator for the progress of a neuromuscular disease and the efficacy of a therapy. Inference for realistic statistical models of the typical data produced when testing muscle function is difficult, and estimating the number of motor units from these data is an ongoing statistical challenge. We consider a set of models for the data, each with a different number of working motor units, and present a novel method for Bayesian inference, based on sequential Monte Carlo, which provides estimates of the marginal likelihood and, hence, a posterior probability for each model. To implement this approach in practice we require sequential Monte Carlo methods that have excellent computational and Monte Carlo properties. We achieve this by leveraging the conditional independence structure in the model, where given knowledge of which motor units fired as a result of a particular stimulus, parameters that specify the size of each unit's response are independent of the parameters defining the probability that a unit will respond at all. The scalability of our methodology relies on the natural conjugacy structure that we create for the former and an enforced, approximate conjugate structure for the latter. A simulation study demonstrates the accuracy of our method, and inferences are consistent across two different datasets arising from the same rat tibial muscle.
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