Temporal variation in natural selection is predicted to strongly impact the evolution and demography of natural populations, with consequences for the rate of adaptation, evolution of plasticity, and extinction risk. Most of the theory underlying these predictions assumes a moving optimum phenotype, with predictions expressed in terms of the temporal variance and autocorrelation of this optimum. However, empirical studies seldom estimate patterns of fluctuations of an optimum phenotype, precluding further progress in connecting theory with observations. To bridge this gap, we assess the evidence for temporal variation in selection on breeding date by modeling a fitness function with a fluctuating optimum, across 39 populations of 21 wild animals, one of the largest compilations of long-term datasets with individual measurements of trait and fitness components. We find compelling evidence for fluctuations in the fitness function, causing temporal variation in the magnitude, but not the direction of selection. However, fluctuations of the optimum phenotype need not directly translate into variation in selection gradients, because their impact can be buffered by partial tracking of the optimum by the mean phenotype. Analyzing individuals that reproduce in consecutive years, we find that plastic changes track movements of the optimum phenotype across years, especially in bird species, reducing temporal variation in directional selection. This suggests that phenological plasticity has evolved to cope with fluctuations in the optimum, despite their currently modest contribution to variation in selection.

Access to analytical code is essential for transparent and reproducible research. We review the state of code availability in ecology using a random sample of 346 nonmolecular articles published between 2015 and 2019 under mandatory or encouraged code-sharing policies. Our results call for urgent action to increase code availability: only 27% of eligible articles were accompanied by code. In contrast, data were available for 79% of eligible articles, highlighting that code availability is an important limiting factor for computational reproducibility in ecology. Although the percentage of ecological journals with mandatory or encouraged code-sharing policies has increased considerably, from 15% in 2015 to 75% in 2020, our results show that code-sharing policies are not adhered to by most authors. We hope these results will encourage journals, institutions, funding agencies, and researchers to address this alarming situation.

Sexual ornaments are predicted to honestly signal individual condition. We might therefore expect ornament expression to show a senescent decline, in parallel with late-life deterioration of other characters. Conversely, life-history theory predicts the reduced residual reproductive value of older individuals will favor increased investment in sexually attractive traits. Using a 25-year dataset of more than 5000 records of breeding collared flycatchers (Ficedula albicollis) of known age, we quantify cross-sectional patterns of age-dependence in ornamental plumage traits and report long-term declines in expression that mask highly significant positive age-dependency. We partition this population-level age-dependency into its between- and within-individual components and show expression of ornamental white plumage patches exhibits within-individual increases with age in both sexes, consistent with life-history theory. For males, ornament expression also covaries with life span, such that, within a cohort, ornamentation indicates survival. Finally, we compared longitudinal age-dependency of reproductive traits and ornamental traits in both sexes, to assess whether these two trait types exhibit similar age-dependency. These analyses revealed contrasting patterns: reproductive traits showed within-individual declines in late-life females consistent with senescence; ornamental traits showed the opposite pattern in both males and females. Hence, our results for both sexes suggest that age-dependent ornament expression is consistent with life-history models of optimal signaling and, unlike reproductive traits, proof against senescence.

Birds are frequently used as indicators of ecosystem health and are the most comprehensively studied class in the animal kingdom. Nevertheless, a comprehensive, interspecific assessment of the correlates of avian genetic diversity is lacking, even though indices of genetic diversity are of considerable interest in the conservation of threatened species. We used published data on variation at microsatellite loci from 194 bird species to examine correlates of diversity, particularly with respect to conservation status and population size. We found a significant decline in mean heterozygosity with increasing extinction risk, and showed, by excluding species whose heterozygosity values were calculated with heterospecific primers, that this relationship was not dependent on ascertainment bias. Results of subsequent regression analyses suggested that smaller population sizes of threatened species were largely responsible for this relationship. Thus, bird species at risk of extinction are relatively depauperate in terms of neutral genetic diversity, which is expected to make population recovery more difficult if it reflects adaptive genetic variation. Conservation policy will need to minimize further loss of diversity if the chances of saving threatened species are to be maximized.

Patterns of taxa abundance distributions are the result of the combined effects of historical and biological processes and as such are central to ecology. It is accepted that a taxa abundance distribution for a given community of animals or plants following a perturbation will typically change in structure from one of high evenness to increasing dominance. Subsequently, such changes in evenness have been used as indicators of biological integrity and environmental assessment. Here, using replicated experimental treehole microcosms perturbed with different concentrations of the pollutant pentachlorophenol, we investigated whether changes in bacterial community structure would reflect the effects of anthropogenic stress in a similar manner to larger organisms. Community structure was visualized using rank-abundance plots fitted with linear regression models. The slopes of the regression models were used as a descriptive statistic of changes in evenness over time. Our findings showed that bacterial community structure reflected the impact and the recovery from an anthropogenic disturbance. In addition, the intensity of impact and the rate of recovery to pre-perturbation structure were dose-dependent. These properties of bacterial community structures may potentially provide a metric for environmental assessment and regulation.

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Carotenoid-based colour expression is frequently involved in sexual dichromatism, particularly in bird plumage, suggesting a role in sexual selection. Despite much work on expression of the carotenoid-based ventral plumage coloration of the great tit (Parus major), which represents a popular model in evolution and ecology, a consensus on even the most basic demographic patterns of variation (e.g. age and sex differences) is lacking. This may reflect the use of variable methods for analysing colour variation, although what is not clear, either in this case or in general, is the extent to which these alternative methods are equally effective at describing age-and sex-related dichromatism. Using data obtained over 4 years from a large sample of free-ranging great tits, we examined how colour-scoring methodology influences estimates of age-and sex-related dichromatism. We compare: (1) principal components analysis-derived scores; (2) tristimulus colour variables; (3) a visual model-independent, carotenoidfocussed colour score; and (4) two colour scoring methods based on avian visual models, examining how they assess colour variation with respect to age and sex to determine how methodology may influence results. We demonstrate clear age-and sex-dependent expression of this colour trait, both in our own data and in meta-analyses of results from great tit populations across Europe, and discuss the merits of the various colour scores, which yield very different estimates of the extent of age-and sex-dependent dichromatism. We show variation is likely to be visible to conspecifics and propose a novel, visual model-derived scoring system for describing variation in carotenoidbased colour patches, where the perceived signal is divided into independent chromatic and achromatic components, in line with current understanding of visual perception. The present study highlights the impact of colour-scoring methodology and shows that, as novel measures continue to be developed, researchers should consider carefully how they quantify colour expression.

Secondary sexual traits have high heritabilities and are exposed to strong, environmentally sensitive selection, and so are expected to evolve rapidly in response to sustained environmental change. We examine the eco-evolutionary dynamics of ornament expression in a long-term study population of collared flycatchers, Ficedula albicollis, in which forehead patch size, which positively influences male reproductive success, declined markedly over 34 years. Annual fitness selection on forehead patch size switched from positive to negative during the study, a reversal that is accounted for by rising spring temperatures at the breeding site: highly ornamented males were selectively favoured following cold breeding seasons but selected against following warm breeding seasons. An 'individual animal model' describes a decline in the genetic values of breeding males during the study, which simulations showed was unlikely to result from drift alone. These results are thus consistent with adaptive evolution of a sexually selected trait in response to climate change.