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In this study, we report the results from a recently performed survey of zebra mussel in Sweden and present a risk model for the potential distribution of the species. The zebra mussel was found in 11 of the 30 surveyed lakes and rivers. Most of the observations were made in the north-eastern parts of Lake Mälaren, i.e., in the basins Ekoln, Skarven, and Görväln. Hierarchical partitioning and stepwise selection of water chemistry variables in a multiple logistic model identified pH and magnesium concentrations as the best predictors for zebra mussel occurrence. We conjecture that magnesium is an important predictor due to its crucial role in mussel physiology. The logistic model was applied on 2,781 lakes and in total 109 lakes (3.9%), most of them situated in specific areas in central Sweden, in the very south and on the island of Gotland, were predicted to be potentially at risk for zebra mussel invasions. The lakes potentially at risk for zebra mussel invasions are separated by the soft-water boreal lakes that constitute the vast majority of lakes on the Fennoscandian peninsula, thus forming barriers for further dispersal.

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