Due to its high lethality among older people, the safety of nursing homes has been of central importance during the COVID-19 pandemic. With test procedures and vaccines becoming available at scale, nursing homes might relax prohibitory measures while controlling the spread of infections. By control we mean that each index case infects less than one other person on average. Here, we develop an agent-based epidemiological model for the spread of SARS-CoV-2 calibrated to Austrian nursing homes to identify optimal prevention strategies. We find that the effectiveness of mitigation testing depends critically on test turnover time (time until test result), the detection threshold of tests and mitigation testing frequencies. Under realistic conditions and in absence of vaccinations, we find that mitigation testing of employees only might be sufficient to control outbreaks if tests have low turnover times and detection thresholds. If vaccines that are 60% effective against high viral load and transmission are available, control is achieved if 80% or more of the residents are vaccinated, even without mitigation testing and if residents are allowed to have visitors. Since these results strongly depend on vaccine efficacy against infection, retention of testing infrastructures, regular testing and sequencing of virus genomes is advised to enable early identification of new variants of concern.

The drivers behind regional differences of SARS-CoV-2 spread on finer spatio-temporal scales are yet to be fully understood. Here we develop a data-driven modelling approach based on an age-structured compartmental model that compares 116 Austrian regions to a suitably chosen control set of regions to explain variations in local transmission rates through a combination of meteorological factors, non-pharmaceutical interventions and mobility. We find that more than 60% of the observed regional variations can be explained by these factors. Decreasing temperature and humidity, increasing cloudiness, precipitation and the absence of mitigation measures for public events are the strongest drivers for increased virus transmission, leading in combination to a doubling of the transmission rates compared to regions with more favourable weather. We conjecture that regions with little mitigation measures for large events that experience shifts toward unfavourable weather conditions are particularly predisposed as nucleation points for the next seasonal SARS-CoV-2 waves.

Structure-forming systems are ubiquitous in nature, ranging from atoms building molecules to self-assembly of colloidal amphibolic particles. The understanding of the underlying thermodynamics of such systems remains an important problem. Here, we derive the entropy for structure-forming systems that differs from Boltzmann-Gibbs entropy by a term that explicitly captures clustered states. For large systems and low concentrations the approach is equivalent to the grand-canonical ensemble; for small systems we find significant deviations. We derive the detailed fluctuation theorem and Crooks’ work fluctuation theorem for structure-forming systems. The connection to the theory of particle self-assembly is discussed. We apply the results to several physical systems. We present the phase diagram for patchy particles described by the Kern-Frenkel potential. We show that the Curie-Weiss model with molecule structures exhibits a first-order phase transition.

Sharing health data for research purposes across international jurisdictions has been a challenge due to privacy concerns. Two privacy enhancing technologies that can enable such sharing are synthetic data generation (SDG) and federated analysis, but their relative strengths and weaknesses have not been evaluated thus far. In this study we compared SDG with federated analysis to enable such international comparative studies. The objective of the analysis was to assess country-level differences in the role of sex on cardiovascular health (CVH) using a pooled dataset of Canadian and Austrian individuals. The Canadian data was synthesized and sent to the Austrian team for analysis. The utility of the pooled (synthetic Canadian + real Austrian) dataset was evaluated by comparing the regression results from the two approaches. The privacy of the Canadian synthetic data was assessed using a membership disclosure test which showed an F1 score of 0.001, indicating low privacy risk. The outcome variable of interest was CVH, calculated through a modified CANHEART index. The main and interaction effect parameter estimates of the federated and pooled analyses were consistent and directionally the same. It took approximately one month to set up the synthetic data generation platform and generate the synthetic data, whereas it took over 1.5 years to set up the federated analysis system. Synthetic data generation can be an efficient and effective tool for enabling multi-jurisdictional studies while addressing privacy concerns.

Importance: A male predominance is reported in hospitalised patients with COVID-19 alongside a higher mortality rate in men compared to women. Objective: To assess if the reported sex bias in the COVID-19 pandemic is validated by analysis of a subset of patients with severe disease. Design: A nationwide retrospective cohort study was performed using the Austrian National COVID Database. We performed a sex-specific Lasso regression to select the covariates best explaining the outcomes of mechanical ventilation and death using variables known before ICU admission. We use logistic regression to construct a sex-specific “risk score” for the outcomes using these variables. Setting: We studied the characteristics and outcomes of patients admitted to intensive care units (ICUs) in Austria. Participants: 5118 patients admitted to the ICU in Austria with a COVID-19 diagnosis in 03/2020–03/2021. Exposures: Demographic and clinical characteristics, vital signs and laboratory tests, comorbidities, and management of patients admitted to ICUs were analysed for possible sex differences. Main outcomes and measures: The aim was to define risk scores for mechanical ventilation and mortality for each sex to provide better sex-sensitive management and outcomes in the future. Results: We found balanced accuracies between 55% and 65% to predict the outcomes. Regarding outcome death, we found that the risk score for pre-ICU variables increases with age, renal insufficiency (f: OR 1.7(2), m: 1.9(2)) and decreases with observance as admission cause (f: OR 0.33(5), m: 0.36(5)). Additionally, the risk score for females also includes respiratory insufficiency (OR 2.4(4)) while heart failure for males only (OR 1.5(1)). Conclusions and relevance: Better knowledge of how sex influences COVID-19 outcomes at ICUs will have important implications for the ongoing pandemic’s clinical care and management strategies. Identifying sex-specific features in individuals with COVID-19 and fatal consequences might inform preventive strategies and public health services.

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Roux-en-Y gastric bypass operations (RYGB-OP) and pregnancy alter glucose homeostasis and the adipokine profile. This study investigates the relationship between adipokines and glucose metabolism during pregnancy post-RYGB-OP. (1) Methods: This is a post hoc analysis of a prospective cohort study during pregnancy in 25 women with an RYGB-OP (RY), 19 women with obesity (OB), and 19 normal-weight (NW) controls. Bioimpedance analysis (BIA) was used for metabolic characterization. Plasma levels of adiponectin, leptin, fibroblast-growth-factor 21 (FGF21), adipocyte fatty acid binding protein (AFABP), afamin, and secretagogin were obtained. (2) Results: The phase angle (φ) was lower in RY compared to OB and NW. Compared to OB, RY, and NW had lower leptin and AFABP levels, and higher adiponectin levels. φ correlated positively with leptin in RY (R = 0.63, p < 0.05) and negatively with adiponectin in OB and NW (R = −0.69, R = −0.69, p < 0.05). In RY, the Matsuda index correlated positively with FGF21 (R = 0.55, p < 0.05) and negatively with leptin (R = −0.5, p < 0.05). In OB, FGF21 correlated negatively with the disposition index (R = −0.66, p < 0.05). (3) Conclusions: The leptin, adiponectin, and AFABP levels differ between RY, OB, and NW and correlate with glucose metabolism and body composition. Thus, adipokines might influence energy homeostasis and maintenance of cellular health during pregnancy.

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