Population-level comparisons of prokaryotic genomes must take into account the substantial differences in gene content resulting from horizontal gene transfer, gene duplication and gene loss. However, the automated annotation of prokaryotic genomes is imperfect, and errors due to fragmented assemblies, contamination, diverse gene families and mis-assemblies accumulate over the population, leading to profound consequences when analysing the set of all genes found in a species. Here, we introduce Panaroo, a graph-based pangenome clustering tool that is able to account for many of the sources of error introduced during the annotation of prokaryotic genome assemblies. Panaroo is available at https://github.com/gtonkinhill/panaroo.

Population-level comparisons of prokaryotic genomes must take into account the substantial differences in gene content, resulting from frequent horizontal gene transfer, gene duplication and gene loss. However, the automated annotation of prokaryotic genomes is imperfect, and errors due to fragmented assemblies, contamination, diverse gene families and mis-assemblies accumulate over the population, leading to profound consequences when analysing the set of all genes found in a species. Here we introduce Panaroo, a graph based pangenome clustering tool that is able to account for many of the sources of error introduced during the annotation of prokaryotic genome assemblies. We verified our approach through extensive simulations of de novo assemblies using the infinitely many genes model and by analysing a number of publicly available large bacterial genome datasets. Using a highly clonal Mycobacterium tuberculosis dataset as a negative control case, we show that failing to account for annotation errors can lead to pangenome estimates that are dominated by error. We additionally demonstrate the utility of the improved graphical output provided by Panaroo by performing a pan-genome wide association study in Neisseria gonorrhoeae and by analysing gene gain and loss rates across 51 of the major global pneumococcal sequence clusters. Panaroo is freely available under an open source MIT licence at https://github.com/gtonkinhill/panaroo.

Many population genetic models have been developed for the purpose of inferring population size and growth rates from random samples of genetic data. We examine two popular approaches to this problem, the coalescent and the birth–death-sampling model (BDM), in the context of estimating population size and birth rates in a population growing exponentially according to the birth–death branching process. For sequences sampled at a single time, we found the coalescent and the BDM gave virtually indistinguishable results in terms of the growth rates and fraction of the population sampled, even when sampling from a small population. For sequences sampled at multiple time points, we find that the birth–death model estimators are subject to large bias if the sampling process is misspecified. Since BDMs incorporate a model of the sampling process, we show how much of the statistical power of BDMs arises from the sequence of sample times and not from the genealogical tree. This motivates the development of a new coalescent estimator, which is augmented with a model of the known sampling process and is potentially more precise than the coalescent that does not use sample time information.