Visual Abstract

Computational models in neuroscience typically contain many parameters that are poorly constrained by experimental data. Uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis provide rigorous procedures to quantify how the model output depends on this parameter uncertainty. Unfortunately, the application of such methods is not yet standard within the field of neuroscience. Here we present Uncertainpy, an open-source Python toolbox, tailored to perform uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis of neuroscience models. Uncertainpy aims to make it quick and easy to get started with uncertainty analysis, without any need for detailed prior knowledge. The toolbox allows uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis to be performed on already existing models without needing to modify the model equations or model implementation. Uncertainpy bases its analysis on polynomial chaos expansions, which are more efficient than the more standard Monte-Carlo based approaches. Uncertainpy is tailored for neuroscience applications by its built-in capability for calculating characteristic features in the model output. The toolbox does not merely perform a point-to-point comparison of the “raw” model output (e.g., membrane voltage traces), but can also calculate the uncertainty and sensitivity of salient model response features such as spike timing, action potential width, average interspike interval, and other features relevant for various neural and neural network models. Uncertainpy comes with several common models and features built in, and including custom models and new features is easy. The aim of the current paper is to present Uncertainpy to the neuroscience community in a user-oriented manner. To demonstrate its broad applicability, we perform an uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis of three case studies relevant for neuroscience: the original Hodgkin-Huxley point-neuron model for action potential generation, a multi-compartmental model of a thalamic interneuron implemented in the NEURON simulator, and a sparsely connected recurrent network model implemented in the NEST simulator.

The global population is at present suffering from a pandemic of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the novel coronavirus Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The goal of this study was to use artificial intelligence (AI) to predict blueprints for designing universal vaccines against SARS-CoV-2, that contain a sufficiently broad repertoire of T-cell epitopes capable of providing coverage and protection across the global population. To help achieve these aims, we profiled the entire SARS-CoV-2 proteome across the most frequent 100 HLA-A, HLA-B and HLA-DR alleles in the human population, using host-infected cell surface antigen presentation and immunogenicity predictors from the NEC Immune Profiler suite of tools, and generated comprehensive epitope maps. We then used these epitope maps as input for a Monte Carlo simulation designed to identify statistically significant “epitope hotspot” regions in the virus that are most likely to be immunogenic across a broad spectrum of HLA types. We then removed epitope hotspots that shared significant homology with proteins in the human proteome to reduce the chance of inducing off-target autoimmune responses. We also analyzed the antigen presentation and immunogenic landscape of all the nonsynonymous mutations across 3,400 different sequences of the virus, to identify a trend whereby SARS-COV-2 mutations are predicted to have reduced potential to be presented by host-infected cells, and consequently detected by the host immune system. A sequence conservation analysis then removed epitope hotspots that occurred in less-conserved regions of the viral proteome. Finally, we used a database of the HLA haplotypes of approximately 22,000 individuals to develop a “digital twin” type simulation to model how effective different combinations of hotspots would work in a diverse human population; the approach identified an optimal constellation of epitope hotspots that could provide maximum coverage in the global population. By combining the antigen presentation to the infected-host cell surface and immunogenicity predictions of the NEC Immune Profiler with a robust Monte Carlo and digital twin simulation, we have profiled the entire SARS-CoV-2 proteome and identified a subset of epitope hotspots that could be harnessed in a vaccine formulation to provide a broad coverage across the global population.

Computational models in neuroscience typically contain many parameters that are poorly constrained by experimental data. Uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis provide rigorous procedures to quantify how the model output depends on this parameter uncertainty. Unfortunately, the application of such methods is not yet standard within the field of neuroscience.Here we present Uncertainpy, an open-source Python toolbox, tailored to perform uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis of neuroscience models. Uncertainpy aims to make it easy and quick to get started with uncertainty analysis, without any need for detailed prior knowledge. The toolbox allows uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis to be performed on already existing models without needing to modify the model equations or model implementation. Uncertainpy bases its analysis on polynomial chaos expansions, which are more efficient than the more standard Monte-Carlo based approaches.Uncertainpy is tailored for neuroscience applications by its built-in capability for calculating characteristic features in the model output. The toolbox does not merely perform a point-topoint comparison of the "raw" model output (e.g. membrane voltage traces), but can also calculate the uncertainty and sensitivity of salient model response features such as spike timing, action potential width, mean interspike interval, and other features relevant for various neural and neural network models. Uncertainpy comes with several common models and features built in, and including custom models and new features is easy.The aim of the current paper is to present Uncertainpy for the neuroscience community in a useroriented manner. To demonstrate its broad applicability, we perform an uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis on three case studies relevant for neuroscience: the original Hodgkin-Huxley point-neuron model for action potential generation, a multi-compartmental model of a thalamic interneuron implemented in the NEURON simulator, and a sparsely connected recurrent network model implemented in the NEST simulator. . 5, 2018; Keywords: uncertainty quantification, sensitivity analysis, features, polynomial chaos, quasi-Monte Carlo methods, stochastic modeling, computational modeling, PythonBY 4.0 International license not peer-reviewed) is the author/funder. It is made available under a The copyright holder for this preprint (which was . http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/274779 doi: bioRxiv preprint first posted online Mar SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENTA major challenge in computational neuroscience is to specify the often large number of parameters that define the neuron and neural network models. Many of these parameters have an inherent variability, and some may even be actively regulated and change with time. It is important to know how the uncertainty in model parameters affects the model predictions. To address this need we here present Uncertainpy, an open-source Python toolbox tailored to perform uncertainty quantification and sensiti...

Aim: Cachexia is a severe wasting disorder involving loss of body-and muscle mass reducing survival and quality of life in cancer patients. We aim at determining if cachexia is a mere perturbation of the protein balance or if the condition also involves a degenerative loss of myonuclei within the fibre syncytia or loss of whole muscle fibres. Methods: We induced cachexia by xenografting PC3 prostate cancer cells in nu/nu mice. Six weeks later, we counted myonuclei by in vivo microscopic imaging of single live fibres in the extensor digitorum longus muscle (EDL), and the EDL, soleus and tibialis anterior muscles were also harvested for ex vivo histology. Results: The mice lost on average 15% of the whole-body wt. The muscle wet weight of the glycolytic, fast EDL was reduced by 14%, the tibialis anterior by 17%, and the slow, oxidative soleus by 6%. The fibre cross-sectional area in the EDL was reduced by 21% with no loss of myonuclei or any significant reduction in the number of muscle fibres. TUNEL-positive nuclei or fibres with embryonic myosin were rare both in cachectic and control muscles, and haematoxylin-eosin staining revealed no clear signs of muscle pathology. Conclusion: The data suggest that the cachexia induced by xenografted prostate tumours induces a pronounced atrophy not accompanied by a loss of myonuclei or a loss of muscle fibres. Thus, stem cell related treatment might be redundant, and the quest for treatment options should rather focus on intervening with intracellular pathways regulating muscle fibre size. K E Y W O R D Satrophy, cachexia, cancer, myonuclei, skeletal muscle