Abstract:This paper describes a coupled, distributed, hydrological-geotechnical model, GEOtop-FS, which simulates the probability of occurrence of shallow landslides and debris flows. We use a hydrological distributed model, GEOtop, which, models latent and sensible heat fluxes and surface runoff, and computes soil moisture in 3-D by solving Richards'equation numerically, together with an infinite-slope geotechnical model, GEOtop-FS. The combined model allows both the hydraulic and geotechnical properties of soil to be considered and realistically modelled. In particular, the model has been conceived to make direct use of field surveys, geotechnical characteristics and soil moisture measurements. In the model the depth of available sediments is also used to characterize the hydraulic properties of the area examined.To account for the uncertainty related to the natural variability in the factors influencing the stability of natural slopes, the safety factor is computed with a probabilistic approach. In order to determine the likelihood of slope failures, soil parameters are assigned distributions instead of single deterministic values.The analysis presented was carried out for an alpine watershed, located in the Friuli region, Italy, for which some geological and geotechnical data were available. In the past, this watershed experienced landslides and debris flows during intense storms following long and moderate intensity rainfall events. The distributed coupled GEOtop-FS model was calibrated by reproducing some of these events and validated in order to map future failure probabilities.
A field measurement campaign was conducted from June to October 2009 in a 20 km2 catchment of the Swiss Alps with a wireless network of 12 weather stations and river discharge monitoring. The objective was to investigate the spatial variability of meteorological forcing and to assess its impact on streamflow generation. The analysis of the runoff dynamics highlighted the important contribution of snowmelt from spring to early summer. During the entire experimental period, the streamflow discharge was dominated by base flow contributions with temporal variations due to occasional rainfall‐runoff events and a regular contribution from glacier melt. Given the importance of snow and ice melt runoff in this catchment, patterns of near‐surface air temperatures were studied in detail. Statistical data analyses revealed that meteorological variables inside the watershed exhibit spatial variability. Air temperatures were influenced by topographic effects such as slope, aspect, and elevation. Rainfall was found to be spatially variable inside the catchment. The impact of this variability on streamflow generation was assessed using a lumped degree‐day model. Despite the variability within the watershed, the streamflow discharge could be described using the lumped model. The novelty of this work mainly consists in quantifying spatial variability for a small watershed and showing to which extent this is important. When the focus is on aggregated outputs, such as streamflow discharge, average values of meteorological forcing can be adequately used. On the contrary, when the focus is on distributed fields such as evaporation or soil moisture, their estimate can benefit from distributed measurements.
Abstract. The design of efficient hydrological risk mitigation strategies and their subsequent implementation relies on a careful vulnerability analysis of the elements exposed. Recently, extensive research efforts were undertaken to develop and refine empirical relationships linking the structural vulnerability of buildings to the impact forces of the hazard processes. These empirical vulnerability functions allow estimating the expected direct losses as a result of the hazard scenario based on spatially explicit representation of the process patterns and the elements at risk classified into defined typological categories. However, due to the underlying empiricism of such vulnerability functions, the physics of the damage-generating mechanisms for a well-defined element at risk with its peculiar geometry and structural characteristics remain unveiled, and, as such, the applicability of the empirical approach for planning hazard-proof residential buildings is limited. Therefore, we propose a conceptual assessment scheme to close this gap. This assessment scheme encompasses distinct analytical steps: modelling (a) the process intensity, (b) the impact on the element at risk exposed and (c) the physical response of the building envelope. Furthermore, these results provide the input data for the subsequent damage evaluation and economic damage valuation. This dynamic assessment supports all relevant planning activities with respect to a minimisation of losses, and can be implemented in the operational risk assessment procedure.
Abstract. The design of efficient hydrological risk mitigation strategies and their subsequent implementation relies on a careful vulnerability analysis of the elements exposed. Recently, extensive research efforts were undertaken to develop and refine empirical relationships linking the structural vulnerability of buildings to the impact forces of the hazard processes. These empirical vulnerability functions allow estimating the expected direct losses as a result of the hazard scenario based on spatially explicit representation of the process patterns and the elements at risk classified into defined typological categories. However, due to the underlying empiricism of such vulnerability functions, the physics of the damage generating mechanisms for a well-defined element at risk with its peculiar geometry and structural characteristics remain unveiled, and, as such, the applicability of the empirical approach for planning hazard-proof residential buildings is limited. Therefore, we propose a conceptual assessment scheme to close this gap. This assessment scheme encompasses distinct analytical steps: modelling (a) the process intensity, (b) the impact on the element at risk exposed and (c) the physical response of the building envelope. Furthermore, these results provide the input data for the subsequent damage evaluation and economic damage valuation. This dynamic assessment supports all relevant planning activities with respect to a minimisation of losses, and can be implemented in the operational risk assessment procedure.
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