Abstract:This paper describes a coupled, distributed, hydrological-geotechnical model, GEOtop-FS, which simulates the probability of occurrence of shallow landslides and debris flows. We use a hydrological distributed model, GEOtop, which, models latent and sensible heat fluxes and surface runoff, and computes soil moisture in 3-D by solving Richards'equation numerically, together with an infinite-slope geotechnical model, GEOtop-FS. The combined model allows both the hydraulic and geotechnical properties of soil to be considered and realistically modelled. In particular, the model has been conceived to make direct use of field surveys, geotechnical characteristics and soil moisture measurements. In the model the depth of available sediments is also used to characterize the hydraulic properties of the area examined.To account for the uncertainty related to the natural variability in the factors influencing the stability of natural slopes, the safety factor is computed with a probabilistic approach. In order to determine the likelihood of slope failures, soil parameters are assigned distributions instead of single deterministic values.The analysis presented was carried out for an alpine watershed, located in the Friuli region, Italy, for which some geological and geotechnical data were available. In the past, this watershed experienced landslides and debris flows during intense storms following long and moderate intensity rainfall events. The distributed coupled GEOtop-FS model was calibrated by reproducing some of these events and validated in order to map future failure probabilities.

Abstract:A snow accumulation and melt module implemented in the GEOTOP model is presented and tested. GEOTOP, a distributed model of the hydrological cycle, based on digital elevation models (DEMs), calculates the discharge at the basin outlet and estimates the local and distributed values of several hydro-meteorological quantities. It solves the energy and the mass balance jointly and deals accurately with the effects of topography on the interactions among radiation physics, energy balance and the hydrological cycle. Soil properties are considered to depend on soil temperature and moisture, and the heat and water transfer in the soil is modelled using a multilayer approach. The snow module solves for the soil-snow energy and mass exchanges, and, together with a runoff production module, is embedded in a more general energy balance model that provides all the boundary conditions required. The snowpack is schematized as a single snow layer where a limited number of physical processes are described. The module can be seen essentially as a parameter-free model. The application to an alpine catchment (Rio Valbiolo, Trentino, Italy), monitored by an in situ snow-depth sensor, is discussed and shown to give results comparable to those of more complex models.