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Background Models developed to predict hospital-acquired AKI (HA-AKI) in non-critically ill patients have a low sensitivity, do not include dynamic changes of risk factors and do not allow to establish a time relationship between exposure to risk factors and AKI. We developed and externally validated a predictive model of HA-AKI, integrating electronic health databases and recording the exposure to risk factors prior to the detection of AKI. Methods Study set: 36,852 non-critically ill hospitalized patients admitted from January to December 2017. Using stepwise logistic analyses, including demography, chronic comorbidities, and exposure to risk factors prior to AKI detection, we developed a multivariate model to predict HA-AKI. This model was then externally validated in 21,545 non-critical patients admitted to the validation center in the period from June 2017 to December 2018. Results The incidence of AKI in the study set was 3.9%. Among chronic comorbidities, the highest odds ratios, were conferred by chronic kidney disease, urologic and liver disease. Among acute complications, the highest odd ratios were associated with acute respiratory failure, anemia, systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS), circulatory shock and major surgery. The model showed an AUC of 0.907(95% CI 0.902 to 0.908), a sensitivity of 82.7 (95% CI 80.7–84.6) and a specificity of 84.2 (95% CI 83.9-84.6) to predict HA-AKI, with an adequate goodness-of-fit for all risk categories (Chi2:6.02, p:0.64). In the validation set, prevalence of AKI was 3.2%. The model showed an AUC of 0.905 (95% CI 0.904-0.910) a sensitivity of 81.2 (95% CI 79.2–83.1) and a specificity of 82.5 (95% CI 82.2- 83) to predict HA-AKI and had an adequate goodness-of-fit for all risk categories (Chi2:4.2, p:0.83). An online tool predaki.amalfianalytics.com is available to calculate the risk of AKI in other hospital environments. Conclusions By using electronic health data records, our study provides a model that can be used in clinical practice to obtain an accurate dynamic and updated assessment of the individual risk of HA-AKI along the hospital admission period in non-critically ill patients.

Background. The current models developed to predict hospital-acquired AKI (HA-AKI) in non-critically ill fail to identify the patients at risk of severe HA-AKI stage 3. Objective. To develop and externally validate a model to predict the individual probability of developing HA-AKI stage 3 through the integration of electronic health databases. Methods. Study set: 165,893 non-critically ill hospitalized patients. Using stepwise logistic regression analyses, including demography, chronic comorbidities, and exposure to risk factors prior to AKI detection, we developed a multivariate model to predict HA-AKI stage 3. This model was then externally validated in 43,569 non-critical patients admitted to the validation center. Results. The incidence of HA-AKI stage 3 in the study set was 0.6%. Among chronic comorbidities, the highest odds ratios were conferred by ischemic heart disease, ischemic cerebrovascular disease, chronic congestive heart failure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, chronic kidney disease and liver disease. Among acute complications, the highest odd ratios were associated with acute respiratory failure, major surgery and exposure to nephrotoxic drugs. The model showed an AUC of 0.906 (95% CI 0.904 to 0.908), a sensitivity of 89.1 (95% CI 87.0–91.0) and a specificity of 80.5 (95% CI 80.2–80.7) to predict HA-AKI stage 3, but tended to overestimate the risk at low-risk categories with an adequate goodness-of-fit for all risk categories (Chi2:16.4, p: 0.034). In the validation set, incidence of HA-AKI stage 3 was 0.62%. The model showed an AUC of 0.861 (95% CI 0.859–0.863), a sensitivity of 83.0 (95% CI 80.5–85.3) and a specificity of 76.5 (95% CI 76.2–76.8) to predict HA-AKI stage 3 with an adequate goodness of fit for all risk categories (Chi2:15.42, p: 0.052). Conclusions. Our study provides a model that can be used in clinical practice to obtain an accurate dynamic assessment of the individual risk of HA-AKI stage 3 along the hospital stay period in non-critically ill patients.

IntroductionWe previously showed that erythropoietin (EPO) attenuates the morphological signs of spinal cord ischemia/reperfusion (I/R) injury in swine [1] without, however, improving neurological function. The clinical use of EPO has been cautioned most recently due to serious safety concerns arising from an increased mortality in acute stroke patients treated with EPO and simultaneously receiving systemic thrombolysis [2]. Carbamylated EPO (cEPO) is an EPO derivative without erythropoietic activity and devoid of the EPO side eff ects, but with apparently well maintained cytoprotective qualities [3]. We therefore tested the hypothesis whether cEPO may be equally effi cient as EPO in reducing morphological as well as functional aortic occlusion-induced spinal cord I/R injury. Methods In a randomized and blinded trial pigs received either vehicle (control, n = 9), EPO or cEPO, respectively (n = 9 each; 5,000 IU/kg over 30 minutes before and during the fi rst 4 hours of reperfusion). Animals underwent 30 minutes of thoracic aortic balloon occlusion with catheters placed immediately downstream of the A. subclavia and upstream of the aortic trifurcation. Spinal cord function was assessed by motor evoked potentials (MEP as percentage of the amplitude before aortic occlusion) and lower limb refl exes (assessed as the subjective strength of response) for a period of 10 hours after reperfusion. Tissue damage was evaluated using Nissl staining. Results Both EPO-treated and cEPO-treated animals presented with attenuated spinal cord injury in the Nissl staining (median (quartile) percentage of damaged neurons in the thoracic segments: control 27 (25,44), cEPO 8 (4,10), and EPO 5 (5,7), P <0.001 vs control group; in the lumbar segments: control 26 (19,32), cEPO 7 (5,13), EPO 8 (5,10), P <0.001 vs control group). However, while only cEPO treatment was associated with recovery of the MEP amplitude to pre-occlusion values when compared with the control group (P <0.05), lower limb refl ex response was comparably restored stronger in both treatment groups (P <0.05 vs control). Conclusions In a clinically relevant porcine model mimicking aortic crossclamping during vascular surgery repair of thoracic aortic aneurysm, cEPO protected spinal cord function and integrity as eff ective as EPO when applied at equipotent doses. Acknowledgements Supported by the Deutsche Forschungs gemeinschaft (SCHE 899/2-2). References Introduction Unfolded protein response (UPR)-mediated apoptosis plays a pivotal role in ischemia-reperfusion injury. Sodium 4-phenylbutyrate (PBA) has been reported to act as a chemical chaperone inhibiting UPR-mediated apoptosis triggered by ischemia in various organs other than the heart. Therefore we investigated whether PBA reduces UPR-mediated apoptosis and protects against myocardial ischemia-reperfusion injury in mice. Methods C57BL/6 mice were subjected to 30 minutes LAD ischemia followed by reperfusion. PBA (100 mg/kg) or PBS (control) was administrated intraperitoneally just before ischemia. Apoptosis, infarct ...