AbstractNational energy sector management differs from country to country. Therefore, it is important to develop country-specific energy models to analyse the energy demand, structure and potential policy instruments. The paper presents a pathway for adaption and improvement of the standard TIMES model structure to the specific country requirements. The analysis is based on a three-sector (industrial, commercial and residential) case study of Latvia. Literature review presents experience of other research when developing different energy models as well as adapting the TIMES model structure. The main results show a distribution of the final energy consumption and the validation of the obtained results of the sectors studied. Method and intermediate results presented in the paper are part of an ongoing modelling process of Latvia’s energy sector.
The transport sector accounts for about one-third of the final energy consumption in Latvia, most of which are fossil fuels in road transport. Fossil fuel consumption increases emissions and demands an immediate change in mobility habits to achieve climate neutrality by 2050. This paper focuses on the in-depth analyses of passenger transport by modelling the potential use of cleaner energy sources and the possible decrease of consumption through the modal shift. As travel modes differ for each distance, the study is done for three distances – short, medium and long. Three scenarios have been analysed – BASE scenario including existing measures and taxation policy, NECP scenario including measures defined in the National Energy and Climate Plan until 2030 and GHG TARGET scenario aiming to achieve climate neutrality by 2050. The proposed modelling approach allows for the development and evaluation of the effectiveness of existing and planned measures in greening mobility. Results proved the need for immediate action and a change in the mobility habits of the population to achieve climate neutrality by 2050.
The industry sector in many countries has a significant role in reaching national long-term emission reductions, energy efficiency and renewable energy targets. New technologies, wide implementation of energy efficiency measures and smart energy management are needed for the industry to ensure local and global competitiveness and reduce emissions. Since the industrial sector is often comprised of sub-sectors that are unique and with local specifics, this paper focuses on three of them, taking Latvia as the case. The sectors are: manufacture of wood and wood products, non-metallic mineral products, as well as food products and tobacco. These sub-sectors together consume around 80 % of the total final energy use in the country’s industrial sector. Comprehensive analysis and decomposition of the sub-sectors was made to identify future development pathways. TIMES model was used to elaborate a process-oriented modelling approach to analyze the impact of measures defined in the National Energy and Climate Plan until 2030 as well to gauge the impact of additional measures. Results show that these measures promote the use of renewable energy and improve energy efficiency, however it is necessary to set new measures and activities for the period beyond to reach climate neutrality by 2050.
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