The ecological system of the desert/grassland biome transition zone is fragile and extremely sensitive to climate change and human activities. Analyzing the relationships between vegetation, climate factors (precipitation and temperature), and human activities in this zone can inform us about vegetation succession rules and driving mechanisms. Here, we used Landsat series images to study changes in the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) over this zone in the Sahel region of Africa. We selected 6315 sampling points for machine-learning training, across four types: desert, desert/grassland biome transition zone, grassland, and water bodies. We then extracted the range of the desert/grassland biome transition zone using the random forest method. We used Global Inventory Monitoring and Modelling Studies (GIMMS) data and the fifth-generation atmospheric reanalysis of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA5) meteorological assimilation data to explore the spatiotemporal characteristics of NDVI and climatic factors (temperature and precipitation). We used the multiple regression residual method to analyze the contributions of human activities and climate change to NDVI. The cellular automation (CA)-Markov model was used to predict the spatial position of the desert/grassland biome transition zone. From 1982 to 2015, the NDVI and temperature increased; no distinct trend was found for precipitation. The climate change and NDVI change trends both showed spatial stratified heterogeneity. Temperature and precipitation had a significant impact on NDVI in the desert/grassland biome transition zone; precipitation and NDVI were positively correlated, and temperature and NDVI were negatively correlated. Both human activities and climate factors influenced vegetation changes. The contribution rates of human activities and climate factors to the increase in vegetation were 97.7% and 48.1%, respectively. Human activities and climate factors together contributed 47.5% to this increase. The CA-Markov model predicted that the area of the desert/grassland biome transition zone in the Sahel region will expand northward and southward in the next 30 years.
Long-term monitoring of the ecological environment changes is helpful for the protection of the ecological environment. Based on the ecological environment of the Sahel region in Africa, we established a remote sensing ecological index (RSEI) model for this region by combining dryness, moisture, greenness, and desertification indicators. Using the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data in Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform, this study analyzed the ecological environment quality of the Sahel region during the period of 2001-2020. We used liner regression and fluctuation analysis methods to study the trend and fluctuation of RSEI, and utilized the stepwise regression approach to analyze the contribution of each indicator to the RSEI. Further, the correlation analysis was used to analyze the correlation between RSEI and precipitation, and Hurst index was applied to evaluate the change trend of RSEI in the future. The results show that RSEI of the Sahel region exhibited spatial heterogeneity. Specifically, it exhibited a decrease in gradient from south to north of the Sahel region. Moreover, RSEI in parts of the Sahel region presented non-zonal features. Different land-cover types demonstrated different RSEI values and changing trends. We found that RSEI and precipitation were positively correlated, suggesting that precipitation is the controlling factor of RSEI. The areas where RSEI values presented an increasing trend were slightly less than the areas where RSEI values presented a decreasing trend. In the Sahel region, the areas with the ecological environment characterized by continuous deterioration and continuous improvement accounted for 44.02% and 28.29% of the total study area, respectively, and the areas in which the ecological environment was changing from improvement to deterioration and from deterioration to improvement accounted for 12.42% and 15.26% of the whole area, respectively. In the face of the current ecological environment and future change trends of RSEI in the Sahel region, the research results provide a reference for the construction of the ''Green Great Wall'' (GGW) ecological environment project in Africa.
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