Background The rapid increase in the detection rate of thyroid cancer over the past few decades has caused some unexpected economic burdens. However, that of papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) seems to have had the opposite trend, which is worthy of further comprehensive exploration. Methods The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results 18 database was used to identify patients with PTC diagnosed during 2003-2017. The incidence trends were analyzed using joinpoint analysis and an age-period-cohort model. Results The overall PTC incidence rate increased from 9.9 to 16.1 per 100 000 between 2003 and 2017. The joinpoint analysis indicated that the incidence growth rate began to slow down in 2009 (annual percentage change [APC] = 3.1%, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.9%–4.4%). After reaching its peak in 2015, it began to decrease by 2.8% (95% CI = −4.6% to −1.0%) per year. The stratified analysis indicated that the incidence patterns of different sexes, age groups, races, and tumor stages and sizes had similar downward trends, including for the localized (APC = −4.5%, 95% CI = −7% to −1.9%) and distant (APC = −1.3%, 95% CI = −2.7% to −.1%) stages, and larger tumors (APC = −4%, 95% CI = −12% to 4.7%). The age-period-cohort model indicated a significant period effect on PTC, which gradually weakened after 2008-2012. The cohort effect indicates that the risk of late birth cohorts is gradually stabilizing and lower than that of early birth cohorts. Conclusion The analysis results of the recent downward trend and period effect for the incidence of each subgroup further support the important role of correcting overdiagnosis in reducing the prevalence of PTC. Future research needs to analyze more-recent data to verify these downward trends.
BackgroundSurvival rates are usually used to evaluate the effect of cancer treatment and prevention. This study aims to analyze the 5-year relative survival of non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) in United States using population-based cancer registry data.MethodsA period analysis was used to evaluate the improvement in long-term prognosis of patients with NHL from 2004 to 2018, and a generalized linear model was developed to predict the 5-year relative survival rates of patients during 2019–2023 based on data from the SEER database stratified by age, sex, race and subtype.ResultsIn this study, relative survival improved for all NHL, although the extent of improvement varied by sex, age group and lymphoma subtype. Survival improvement was also noted for NHL subtypes, although the extent varied, with marginal-zone lymphoma having the highest 5-year relative survival rate (92.5%) followed by follicular lymphoma (91.6%) and chronic lymphocytic leukemia/small lymphocytic lymphoma (87.3%). Across all subtypes, survival rates were slightly higher in females than in males. Survival rates are lower in the elderly than in the young. Furthermore, the study demonstrated that black patients had lower NHL survival rates than white patients. Survival rates for NHL were higher in rural areas than in urban areas. Patients with extra-nodal NHL had a higher survival rate than patients with nodal NHL.ConclusionOverall, patient survival rates for NHL gradually improved during 2004–2018. The trend continues with a survival rate of 75.2% for the period 2019–2023. Analysis by NHL subtype and subgroups indicating that etiology and risk factors may differ by subtype. Identification of population-specific prevention strategies and treatments for each subtype can be aided by understanding these variations.
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