Climate change will markedly impact biology, population ecology, and spatial distribution patterns of insect pests because of the influence of future greenhouse effects on insect development and population dynamics. Onion maggot, Delia antiqua, larvae are subterranean pests with limited mobility, that directly feed on bulbs of Allium sp. and render them completely unmarketable. Modeling the spatial distribution of such a widespread and damaging pest is crucial not only to identify current potentially suitable climactic areas but also to predict where the pest is likely to spread in the future so that appropriate monitoring and management programs can be developed. In this study, Maximum Entropy Niche Modeling was used to estimate the current potential distribution of D. antiqua and to predict the future distribution of this species in 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2080 by using emission scenario (A2) with 7 climate variables. The results of this study show that currently highly suitable habitats for D.antiqua occur throughout most of East Asia, some regions of North America, Western Europe, and Western Asian countries near the Caspian sea and Black Sea. In the future, we predict an even broader distribution of this pest spread more extensively throughout Asia, North America and Europe, particularly in most of European countries, Central regions of United States and much of East Asia. Our present day and future predictions can enhance strategic planning of agricultural organizations by identifying regions that will need to develop Integrated Pest Management programs to manage the onion maggot. The distribution forecasts will also help governments to optimize economic investments in management programs for this pest by identifying regions that are or will become less suitable for current and future infestations.

In this study, we first construct an age-stage, two-sex life table for onion maggot, Delia antiqua, grown on three host plants: onion, scallion, and garlic. We found that onion is the optimal host for this species and populations grown on onion have maximum fecundity, longest adult longevity and reproduction period, and the shortest immature developmental time. In contrast, the fecundity on other hosts was lower, particularly on garlic, but these crops can also serve as important secondary hosts for this pest. These data will be useful to the growers to develop specific integrated management programs for each of hosts. We also compared the demographic analyses of using individually-reared and group-reared methods. These two methods provided similar accurate outcomes for estimating insect population dynamics for this species. However, for gregarious species, using the individually-reared method to construct insect life tables produces inaccurate results, and researchers must use group-reared method for life table calculations. When studying large groups of insect, group-reared demographic analysis for age-stage, two-sex life table can also simplify statistical analysis, save considerable labor, and reduce experimental errors.

Numerous studies have reported that larval experience can affect subsequent host plants selection and future oviposition decisions of many different species, but the investigation of pre-imaginal experiences on host preference of adults has rarely been tested for soil-dwelling insects. In this study, we present evidence that larval feeding experience can affect adult host preference in the onion maggot, Delia antiqua. By rearing D. antiqua on different host plants, we were able to examine the role of the natal host of different generations and the effect of larval density on host-choice behaviour. We also performed bioassays by means of switched host treatment to evaluate the host-selection principle. Choice bioassays among the three host species demonstrated that D. antiqua females preferred to oviposit on their natal host in each generation and host-switching treatments. Additionally, increasing larval density could intensify this ovipositional preference on the natal host. The overall results showed that host preference of female D. antiqua is determined by larval experience and density. These findings also add support for the controversial Hopkins' host-selection principle. K E Y W O R D Shost-plant preference, phenotypic plasticity, prior experience, soil-dwelling insect, specialization

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