PurposeGrey modeling technique is an important element of grey system theory, and academic articles applied to agricultural science research have been published since 1985, proving the broad applicability and effectiveness of the technique from different aspects and providing a new means to solve agricultural science problems. The analysis of the connotation and trend of the application of grey modeling technique in agricultural science research contributes to the enrichment of grey technique and the development of agricultural science in multiple dimensions.Design/methodology/approachBased on the relevant literature selected from China National Knowledge Infrastructure, the Web of Science, SpiScholar and other databases in the past 37 years (1985–2021), this paper firstly applied the bibliometric method to quantitatively visualize and systematically analyze the trend of publication, productive author, productive institution, and highly cited literature. Then, the literature is combed by the application of different grey modeling techniques in agricultural science research, and the literature research progress is systematically analyzed.FindingsThe results show that grey model technology has broad prospects in the field of agricultural science research. Agricultural universities and research institutes are the main research forces in the application of grey model technology in agricultural science research, and have certain inheritance. The application of grey model technology in agricultural science research has wide applicability and precise practicability.Originality/valueBy analyzing and summarizing the application trend of grey model technology in agricultural science research, the research hotspot, research frontier and valuable research directions of grey model technology in agricultural science research can be more clearly grasped.

Analyzing and evaluating the efficiency of scientific and technological innovation in grain production is conducive to the rational allocation of resources, promoting the development of scientific and technological innovation in grain production and providing guarantee for grain security. By refining the elements of grain production and scientific and technological innovation, an evaluation system of scientific and technological innovation in grain production is constructed. Firstly, combining linear programming together with the traditional grey synthetic incidence analysis model, a incidence analysis of the scientific and technological innovation indicators of grain production is carried out, and the key and secondary indexes affecting grain outputs are screened by an improved grey incidence analysis model. Secondly, based on DEA-Malmquist index model and taking the grain production process as the research object, the scientific and technological achievement transformation indicators are divided into pre-production, in-production and post-production indicators. The key indicators and secondary indicators of scientific and technological innovation of grain production in various cities of Henan Province from 2010 to 2019 are used to analyze the efficiency of scientific and technological innovation in each stage of grain production. The results show that: (1) The type of basic ability of scientific and technological innovation indicators and the transformation ability of scientific and technological innovation achievements are the major indicators influencing grain outputs, and the investment of basic resources of scientific and technological innovation and the transformation of scientific and technological innovation achievements are the most important to improve grain outputs. (2) In addition, the study reveals that the secondary indicators of the technological innovation efficiency of grain production based on the DEA-Malmquist index model are more efficient than the key indicators in the pre-production, in-production and post-production stages. And there are gaps in the scientific and technological innovation performance of grain production among cities in Henan Province, and the index of technological progress is the leading factor for the gap.

A sustainable growth of grain outputs mainly relies on improving output per unit area through scientific and technological innovation. From the perspective of scientific and technological innovation, taking the grain production process as the research object, a systems model of scientific and technological innovation in grain production is constructed based on the relevant data of Henan Province from 2010 to 2019. Firstly, the internal mechanism of grain production scientific and technological innovation is explored, and the feedback loop of grain production scientific and technological innovation is then established. Secondly, system dynamics and grey system theory are combined to construct table functions and logistic functions to establish the grain production scientific and technological innovation system model. Through testing the model, the stability and feasibility of the model are demonstrated, and the simulation and prediction of the innovation system of grain production scientific and technological in Henan Province are carried out. Thirdly, in order to explore the impact of feasible policy schemes on grain production, seven policy plans are designed to simulate grain production policy scenarios from the perspective of scientific and technological innovation. The results show that: (1) The adjustment of individual policies, especially the adjustment of the protection policy of scientific and technological innovation in grain production or the subsidy policy of agricultural materials, has a weak influence on the improvement of grain output. The progress of agricultural technology is the main support for improving the comprehensive grain production capacity. (2) The future grain growth potential of Henan Province should focus on increasing the yield per unit area, and the protection of cultivated land resources should not be ignored. (3) The combination of policies has mutually reinforcing effect, which leads to an ideal system simulation effect. Finally, from the perspective of the composition of scientific and technological innovation system in Henan Province, this study puts forward countermeasures and suggestions for the implementation of the strategy of “storing grain in technology” in Henan Province.