Coastal flood regimes have been irreversibly altered by both climate change and human activities. This paper aims to quantify the impacts of multiple factors on delta flood. The Pearl River Delta (PRD), with dense river network and population, is one of the most developed coastal areas in China. The recorded extreme water level (m.s.l.) in flood season has been heavily interfered with by varied income flood flow, sea-level rise, and dredged riverbeds. A methodology, composed of a numerical model and the indexR, has been developed to quantify the impacts of these driving factors in the the PRD. Results show that the flood level varied 4.29%–53.49% from the change of fluvial discharge, 3.35%–38.73% from riverbed dredging, and 0.12%–16.81% from sea-level rise. The variation of flood flow apparently takes the most effect and sea-level rise the least. In particular, dense river network intensifies the impact of income flood change and sea-level rise. Findings from this study help understand the causes of the the PRD flood regimes and provide theoretical support for flood protection in the delta region.
This paper develops a new inter-basin water transfer-supply and risk assessment model with consideration of rainfall forecast information. Firstly, based on the current state of reservoir and rainfall forecast information from the global forecast system (GFS), the actual diversion amount can be determined according to the inter-basin water transfer rules with the decision tree method; secondly, the reservoir supply operation system is used to distribute water resource of the inter-basin water transfer reservoir; finally, the integrated risk assessment model is built by selecting the reliability of water transfer, the reliability (water shortage risk), the resiliency and the vulnerability of water supply as risk analysis indexes. The case study shows that the inter-basin water transfer-supply model with rainfall forecast information considered can reduce the comprehensive risk and improve the utilization efficiency of water resource, as compared with conventional and optimal water distribution models.inter-basin water transfer, GFS rainfall forecast, water distribution, risk assessment Citation:Xi S F, Wang B D, Liang G H, et al. Inter-basin water transfer-supply model and risk analysis with consideration of rainfall forecast information. Sci
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