We consider the relative advantages of two advanced data assimilation systems, 4-D-Var and ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), currently in use or under consideration for operational implementation. With the Lorenz model, we explore the impact of tuning assimilation parameters such as the assimilation window length and background error covariance in 4-D-Var, variance inflation in EnKF, and the effect of model errors and reduced observation coverage. For short assimilation windows EnKF gives more accurate analyses. Both systems reach similar levels of accuracy if long windows are used for 4-D-Var. For infrequent observations, when ensemble perturbations grow non-linearly and become non-Gaussian, 4-D-Var attains lower errors than EnKF. If the model is imperfect, the 4-D-Var with long windows requires weak constraint. Similar results are obtained with a quasi-geostrophic channel model. EnKF experiments made with the primitive equations SPEEDY model provide comparisons with 3-D-Var and guidance on model error and 'observation localization'. Results obtained using operational models and both simulated and real observations indicate that currently EnKF is becoming competitive with 4-D-Var, and that the experience acquired with each of these methods can be used to improve the other. A table summarizes the pros and cons of the two methods.
The summer of 2002 marked the beginning of the Research Internships in Science and Engineering (RISE) program. RISE worked to build an extensive network of women faculty, science and engineering researchers, graduate students, and undergraduates. The program built this network through an eight-week summer research experience for "rising" junior and senior undergraduates. The goal was to encourage all participants to remain in science and engineering and to pursue graduate degrees. By engaging twenty undergraduate junior and senior RISE scholars in teams with research projects coordinated by female faculty, the program introduced female students to women mentors and role models while providing high-quality opportunities to enhance their research knowledge and skills. RISE interns received advanced training in team skills, interpersonal communication,
Coupled bred vectors (BVs) generated from the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) coupled general circulation model are designed to capture the uncertainties related to slowly varying coupled instabilities. Two applications of the BVs are investigated in this study.First, the coupled BVs are used as initial perturbations for ensemble-forecasting purposes. Results show that the seasonal-to-interannual variability forecast skill can be improved when the oceanic and atmospheric perturbations are initialized with coupled BVs. The impact is particularly significant when the forecasts are initialized from the cold phase of tropical Pacific SST (e.g., August and November), because at these times the early coupled model errors, not accounted for in the BVs, are small.Second, the structure of the BVs is applied to construct hybrid background error covariances carrying flowdependent information for the ocean data assimilation. Results show that the accuracy of the ocean analyses is improved when Gaussian background covariances are supplemented with a term obtained from the BVs. The improvement is especially noticeable for the salinity field.
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