Background Identification of blood biomarkers that prospectively predict progression of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection to tuberculosis disease may lead to interventions that impact the epidemic. Methods Healthy, M. tuberculosis infected South African adolescents were followed for 2 years; blood was collected every 6 months. A prospective signature of risk was derived from whole blood RNA-Sequencing data by comparing participants who ultimately developed active tuberculosis disease (progressors) with those who remained healthy (matched controls). After adaptation to multiplex qRT-PCR, the signature was used to predict tuberculosis disease in untouched adolescent samples and in samples from independent cohorts of South African and Gambian adult progressors and controls. The latter participants were household contacts of adults with active pulmonary tuberculosis disease. Findings Of 6,363 adolescents screened, 46 progressors and 107 matched controls were identified. A 16 gene signature of risk was identified. The signature predicted tuberculosis progression with a sensitivity of 66·1% (95% confidence interval, 63·2–68·9) and a specificity of 80·6% (79·2–82·0) in the 12 months preceding tuberculosis diagnosis. The risk signature was validated in an untouched group of adolescents (p=0·018 for RNA-Seq and p=0·0095 for qRT-PCR) and in the independent South African and Gambian cohorts (p values <0·0001 by qRT-PCR) with a sensitivity of 53·7% (42·6–64·3) and a specificity of 82·8% (76·7–86) in 12 months preceding tuberculosis. Interpretation The whole blood tuberculosis risk signature prospectively identified persons at risk of developing active tuberculosis, opening the possibility for targeted intervention to prevent the disease. Funding Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, the National Institutes of Health, Aeras, the European Union and the South African Medical Research Council (detail at end of text).

Tuberculosis (TB) still poses a profound burden on global health, owing to significant morbidity and mortality worldwide. Although a fully functional immune system is essential for the control of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection, the underlying mechanisms and reasons for failure in part of the infected population remain enigmatic. Here, whole-blood microarray gene expression analyses were performed in TB patients and in latently as well as uninfected healthy controls to define biomarkers predictive of susceptibility and resistance. Fc gamma receptor 1B (FCGRIB)was identified as the most differentially expressed gene, and, in combination with four other markers, produced a high degree of accuracy in discriminating TB patients and latently infected donors. We determined differentially expressed genes unique for active disease and identified profiles that correlated with susceptibility and resistance to TB. Elevated expression of innate immune-related genes in active TB and higher expression of particular gene clusters involved in apoptosis and natural killer cell activity in latently infected donors are likely to be the major distinctive factors determining failure or success in controlling M. tuberculosis infection. The gene expression profiles defined in this study provide valuable clues for better understanding of progression from latent infection to active disease and pave the way for defining predictive correlates of protection in TB.

Rationale: Contacts of patients with tuberculosis (TB) constitute an important target population for preventive measures because they are at high risk of infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis and progression to disease.Objectives: We investigated biosignatures with predictive ability for incident TB.Methods: In a case-control study nested within the Grand Challenges 6-74 longitudinal HIV-negative African cohort of exposed household contacts, we employed RNA sequencing, PCR, and the pair ratio algorithm in a training/test set approach. Overall, 79 progressors who developed TB between 3 and 24 months after diagnosis of index case and 328 matched nonprogressors who remained healthy during 24 months of follow-up were investigated. Measurements and Main Results:A four-transcript signature derived from samples in a South African and Gambian training set predicted progression up to two years before onset of disease in blinded test set samples from South Africa, the Gambia, and Ethiopia with little population-associated variability, and it was also validated in an external cohort of South African adolescents with latent M. tuberculosis infection. By contrast, published diagnostic or prognostic TB signatures were predicted in samples from some but not all three countries, indicating site-specific variability. Post hoc meta-analysis identified a single gene pair, C1QC/TRAV27 (complement C1q C-chain / T-cell receptor-a variable gene 27) that would consistently predict TB progression in household contacts from multiple African sites but not in infected adolescents without known recent exposure events.Conclusions: Collectively, we developed a simple whole blood-based PCR test to predict TB in recently exposed household contacts from diverse African populations. This test has potential for implementation in national TB contact investigation programs.

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Although tuberculosis (TB) causes more deaths than any other pathogen, most infected individuals harbor the pathogen without signs of disease. We explored the metabolome of >400 small molecules in serum of uninfected individuals, latently infected healthy individuals and patients with active TB. We identified changes in amino acid, lipid and nucleotide metabolism pathways, providing evidence for anti-inflammatory metabolomic changes in TB. Metabolic profiles indicate increased activity of indoleamine 2,3 dioxygenase 1 (IDO1), decreased phospholipase activity, increased abundance of adenosine metabolism products, as well as indicators of fibrotic lesions in active disease as compared to latent infection. Consistent with our predictions, we experimentally demonstrate TB-induced IDO1 activity. Furthermore, we demonstrate a link between metabolic profiles and cytokine signaling. Finally, we show that 20 metabolites are sufficient for robust discrimination of TB patients from healthy individuals. Our results provide specific insights into the biology of TB and pave the way for the rational development of metabolic biomarkers for TB.

Increasing knowledge about DosR regulon-encoded proteins has led us to produce novel Mycobacterium tuberculosis antigens for immunogenicity testing in human populations in three countries in Africa to which tuberculosis (TB) is endemic. A total of 131 tuberculin skin test-positive and/or ESAT-6/CFP10-positive, human immunodeficiency virus-negative adult household contacts of active pulmonary TB cases from South Africa (n ‫؍‬ 56), The Gambia (n ‫؍‬ 26), and Uganda (n ‫؍‬ 49) were tested for gamma interferon responses to 7 classical and 51 DosR regulon-encoded M. tuberculosis recombinant protein antigens. ESAT-6/CFP10 fusion protein evoked responses in >75% of study participants in all three countries. Of the DosR regulon-encoded antigens tested, Rv1733c was the most commonly recognized by participants from both South Africa and Uganda and the third most commonly recognized antigen in The Gambia. The four most frequently recognized DosR regulon-encoded antigens in Uganda (Rv1733c, Rv0081, Rv1735c, and Rv1737c) included the three most immunogenic antigens in South Africa. In contrast, Rv3131 induced the highest percentage of responders in Gambian contacts (38%), compared to only 3.4% of Ugandan contacts and no South African contacts. Appreciable percentages of TB contacts with a high likelihood of latent M. tuberculosis infection responded to several novel DosR regulon-encoded M. tuberculosis proteins. In addition to significant similarities in antigen recognition profiles between the three African population groups, there were also disparities, which may stem from genetic differences between both pathogen and host populations. Our findings have implications for the selection of potential TB vaccine candidates and for determining biosignatures of latent M. tuberculosis infection, active TB disease, and protective immunity.

New biomarkers of tuberculosis (TB) risk and disease are critical for the urgently needed control of the ongoing TB pandemic. In a prospective multisite study across Subsaharan Africa, we analyzed metabolic profiles in serum and plasma from HIV-negative, TB-exposed individuals who either progressed to TB 3–24 months post-exposure (progressors) or remained healthy (controls). We generated a trans-African metabolic biosignature for TB, which identifies future progressors both on blinded test samples and in external data sets and shows a performance of 69% sensitivity at 75% specificity in samples within 5 months of diagnosis. These prognostic metabolic signatures are consistent with development of subclinical disease prior to manifestation of active TB. Metabolic changes associated with pre-symptomatic disease are observed as early as 12 months prior to TB diagnosis, thus enabling timely interventions to prevent disease progression and transmission.

The recent introduction of fluorescent bead-based technology, allowing the measurement of multiples analytes in a single 25–50 µl sample has revolutionized the study of cytokine responses. However, such multiplex approaches may compromise the ability of these assays to accurately measure actual cytokine levels. This study evaluates the performance of three commercially available multiplex cytokine fluorescent bead-based immunoassays (Bio-Rad's Cytokine 17-plex kit; LINCO Inc's 29-plex kit; and RnD System's Fluorokine-Multi Analyte Profiling (MAP) base kit A and B). The LINCO Inc kit was found to be the most sensitive assay for measuring concentrations of multiple recombinant cytokines in samples that had been spiked with serial dilutions of the standard provided by the manufacturer, followed respectively by the RnD Fluorokine-(MAP) and Bio-Rad 17-plex kits. A positive correlation was found in the levels of IFN-γ measured in antigen stimulated whole blood culture supernatants by the LINCO Inc 29-plex, RnD Fluorokine-(MAP) and RnD system IFN-γ Quantikine ELISA kits across a panel of controls and stimulated samples. Researchers should take the limitation of such multiplexed assays into account when planning experiments and the most appropriate use for these tests may currently be as screening tools for the selection of promising markers for analysis by more sensitive techniques.