We give an upper bound on the resources required for valuable quantum advantage in pricing derivatives. To do so, we give the first complete resource estimates for useful quantum derivative pricing, using autocallable and Target Accrual Redemption Forward (TARF) derivatives as benchmark use cases. We uncover blocking challenges in known approaches and introduce a new method for quantum derivative pricing – the re-parameterization method – that avoids them. This method combines pre-trained variational circuits with fault-tolerant quantum computing to dramatically reduce resource requirements. We find that the benchmark use cases we examine require 8k logical qubits and a T-depth of 54 million. We estimate that quantum advantage would require executing this program at the order of a second. While the resource requirements given here are out of reach of current systems, we hope they will provide a roadmap for further improvements in algorithms, implementations, and planned hardware architectures.

While recent work suggests that quantum computers can speed up the solution of semidefinite programs, little is known about the quantum complexity of more general convex optimization. We present a quantum algorithm that can optimize a convex function over an n-dimensional convex body usingÕ(n) queries to oracles that evaluate the objective function and determine membership in the convex body. This represents a quadratic improvement over the best-known classical algorithm. We also study limitations on the power of quantum computers for general convex optimization, showing that it requiresΩ( √ n) evaluation queries and Ω( √ n) membership queries. * 1 The notationÕ suppresses logarithmic factors.

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