This study examines how long the Israeli people support the government for an ongoing war. The rally-round-the-flag phenomenon, proclaiming that wartime governments can enjoy majority public support at the beginning of wars, is a challenging topic in the field of International Relations. Although this effect was noticed at the time of the Second Lebanon War, it remains unclear which particular condition determined the duration of public support in Israel. While the rally effect is a universal phenomenon, it is important to keep in mind the particularity of Israel. We hold on to an alternative theory, bandwagon effect, emphasizing the role of affectivity of individuals on the flow of information in crisis, in place of the standard rational expectation theory. An original experimental survey was conducted to examine the bandwagon effect in the rally phenomenon among Israeli citizens.
This study examines the effect of the demographic trend on the breakdown of authoritarian regimes in the Middle East. Several scholars have pointed out that the combination of youth’s disproportionate share of the total population, the “youth bulge,” and high unemployment throws a society into turmoil. The demographic change determines not only how human activities are conducted but also how a society embarks on a political transition, such as a revolution, a state breakdown, or a regime change. I conduct two levels of empirical analysis of the political implications of the demographic dynamics in the Middle East. First, the macro-level analysis is based on cross-sectional data over two decades. This analysis will clarify whether the youth population had a significant effect on the Arab uprisings. Second, the micro-level analysis uses survey data from the Arab Democracy Barometer wave III to examine whether there is a significant correlation between youth and participation in protest. This analytical approach integrates the macro level with the micro level in order to avoid an ecological inference. My empirical analysis finds evidence to support Jack Goldstone’s revolution theory: it is built on demographic changes accompanied by rising food prices. The hypothesis is tested by examining the interactive effect of youth bulge and the deteriorating economic situation in the two decades following the end of the Cold War. The empirical tests at both the macro and micro levels identify a statistically significant effect.
The new coronavirus epidemic was perceived as a national crisis, and Israel mobilized all its security agencies to formulate countermeasures. Prime Minister Netanyahu seems to have successfully capitalized on this national crisis to boost support for himself in the short term. Prime Minister However, as discussed below, even if the growing death toll from the outbreak was reversed, there were other countries whose successes did not translate into increased support for the government, one of which was Japan.This study analyzes the surge in support for the prime minister during the first wave of the coronavirus epidemic in Israel within the framework of the rally effect. Israel was chosen as a case study for two reasons. First, the country was repeatedly polled during the first wave of infection. Second, a special policy that met the requirements for natural experimentation—a strict compartmentalized blockade limited to certain areas—had been in place for a while. These two conditions mean that a study of Israel during the first wave of the epidemic will allow us to make discoveries about the conditions under which a society supports its political leaders in the face of a national crisis.
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