The very limited instrumental record makes extensive analyses of the natural variability of global tropical cyclone activities difficult in most of the tropical cyclone basins. However, in the two regions where reasonably reliable records exist (the North Atlantic and the western North Pacific), substantial multidecadal variability (particularly for intense Atlantic hurricanes) is found, but there is no clear evidence of long-term trends. Efforts have been initiated to use geological and geomorphological records and analysis of oxygen isotope ratios in rainfall recorded in cave stalactites to establish a paleoclimate of tropical cyclones, but these have not yet produced definitive results. Recent thermodynamical estimation of the maximum potential intensities (MPI) of tropical cyclones shows good agreement with observations. Although there are some uncertainties in these MPI approaches, such as their sensitivity to variations in parameters and failure to include some potentially important interactions such as ocean spray feedbacks, the response of upperoceanic thermal structure, and eye and eyewall dynamics, they do appear to be an objective tool with which to predict present and future maxima of tropical cyclone intensity. Recent studies indicate the MPI of cyclones will remain the same or undergo a modest increase of up to 10%-20%. These predicted changes are small compared with the observed natural variations and fall within the uncertainty range in current studies. Furthermore, the known omissions (ocean spray, momentum restriction, and possibly also surface to 300-hPa lapse rate changes) could all operate to mitigate the predicted intensification. A strong caveat must be placed on analysis of results from current GCM simulations of the "tropical-cyclone-like" vortices. Their realism, and hence prediction skill (and also that of "embedded" mesoscale models), is greatly limited by the coarse resolution of current GCMs and the failure to capture environmental factors that govern cyclone intensity. Little, therefore, can be said about the potential changes of the distribution of intensities as opposed to maximum achievable intensity. Current knowledge and available techniques are too rudimentary for quantitative indications of potential changes in tropical cyclone frequency. The broad geographic regions of cyclogenesis and therefore also the regions affected by tropical cyclones are not expected to change significantly. It is emphasized that the popular belief that the region of cyclogenesis will expand with the 26°C SST isotherm is a fallacy. The very modest available evidence points to an expectation of little or no change in global frequency. Regional and local frequencies could change substantially in either direction, because of the dependence of cyclone genesis and track on other phenomena (e.g., ENSO) that are not yet predictable. Greatly improved skills from coupled global ocean-atmosphere models are required before improved predictions are possible.

Two cDNA clones covering the N- and C-terminal portions of the EBV BXLF1 open reading frame were selected from a cDNA library derived from P3HR1 cells. The two clones were ligated, the N-terminal untranslated region truncated, and the product inserted into an E. coli expression vector, pET3CP*. The fusion protein was expressed under control of the T7 phage phi 10 gene promoter and shown to possess thymidine kinase activity. The protein was then used as an antigen to detect antibody reactivities in serum samples of nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients and healthy blood donors. Using a 1:400 dilution of serum samples in Western blot analyses, it was possible to differentiate the reactivities of serum IgA of NPC patients and healthy donors. The prevalence of positive reactivity to EBV TK in NPC was around 84%. The test was compared to others used for early diagnosis of NPC and was able to detect some patients who were negative in those tests.

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Surface tracks of some cross-Taiwan tropical cyclones were discontinuous as a result of the blockage of the north-northeast-south-southwest-oriented Central Mountain Range (CMR). This paper tries to identify the variables that may be used to diagnose track continuity in advance. The track records of 131 westbound cross-Taiwan tropical cyclones between 1897 and 2009 are examined. It is found that the track continuity of a westbound cross-Taiwan tropical cyclone depends mostly upon the landfall location (YLF), the approaching direction (ANG), and the maximum wind (VMX) of the cyclone. According to the empirical probability of track continuity estimated from the data, the dependence on YLF, which is nonlinear and remarkably asymmetric with respect to the midpoint of the east coast, may be well approximated by a quadratic function of YLF. The nonlinearity and asymmetry can be interpreted in terms of the length scale of the CMR and the north-south antisymmetry of the cyclonic flow. The estimated dependence of track continuity on cyclone intensity and size may be approximated by a linear function of VMX. The estimated dependence of track continuity on ANG may be approximated by a single term of the modified variable DIR (5jANG 2 110j, where 110 is the direction, in degrees, perpendicular to the CMR's long axis).Using the 64 tracks between 1944 and 1996 as the training sample, a logistic regression equation model, built in terms of YLF, YLF square, DIR, and VMX gives an overall accuracy score of 89%. As to the probability estimates of individual tracks, 49 of the 64 tracks have estimated probabilities outside the (0.5 2 0.127, 0.5 1 0.127) RMS error range and are correctly classified. A prediction test using another set of 67 tracks not included in the model-training sample, scores a success rate of 82%. As to the probability predictions for individual tracks, 49 of the 67 tracks have predicted probabilities outside the RMS error range and are correctly predicted. These results confirm the appropriateness of the model and moreover demonstrate that the three parameters, YLF, DIR, and VMX, primarily control the surface track continuity of a westbound tropical cyclone crossing Taiwan.