In this paper we explore the trend in net biome productivity (NBP) over India for the period 1980–2012 and quantify the impact of different environmental factors, including atmospheric CO2 concentrations ([CO2]), land use and land cover change, climate, and nitrogen deposition on carbon fluxes using a land surface model, Integrated Science Assessment Model. Results show that terrestrial ecosystems of India have been a carbon sink for this period. Driven by a strong CO2 fertilization effect, magnitude of NBP increased from 27.17 TgC/yr in the 1980s to 34.39 TgC/yr in the 1990s but decreased to 23.70 TgC/yr in the 2000s due to change in climate. Adoption of forest conservation, management, and reforestation policies in the past decade has promoted carbon sequestration in the ecosystems, but this effect has been offset by loss of carbon from ecosystems due to rising temperatures and decrease in precipitation.
Abstract. Spring wheat is a major food crop that is a staple for a large number of people in India and the world. To address the issue of food security, it is essential to understand how the productivity of spring wheat varies with changes in environmental conditions and agricultural management practices. The goal of this study is to quantify the role of different environmental factors and management practices on wheat production in India in recent years (1980 to 2016). Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration ([CO2]) and climate change are identified as two major factors that represent changes in the environment. The addition of nitrogen fertilizers and irrigation practices are the two land management factors considered in this study. To study the effects of these factors on wheat growth and production, we developed crop growth processes for spring wheat in India and implemented them in the Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM), a state-of-the-art land model. The model is able to simulate the observed leaf area index (LAI) at the site scale and observed production at the country scale. Numerical experiments are conducted with the model to quantify the effect of each factor on wheat production on a country scale for India. Our results show that elevated [CO2] levels, water availability through irrigation, and nitrogen fertilizers have led to an increase in annual wheat production at 0.67, 0.25, and 0.26 Mt yr−1, respectively, averaged over the time period 1980–2016. However, elevated temperatures have reduced the total wheat production at a rate of 0.39 Mt yr−1 during the study period. Overall, the [CO2], irrigation, fertilizers, and temperature forcings have led to 22 Mt (30 %), 8.47 Mt (12 %), 10.63 Mt (15 %), and −13 Mt (−18 %) changes in countrywide production, respectively. The magnitudes of these factors spatially vary across the country thereby affecting production at regional scales. Results show that favourable growing season temperatures, moderate to high fertilizer application, high availability of irrigation facilities, and moderate water demand make the Indo-Gangetic Plain the most productive region, while the arid north-western region is the least productive due to high temperatures and lack of irrigation facilities to meet the high water demand.
RESUMENLos Himalayas desempeñan un papel importante en el clima y el tiempo meteorológico de la India, y controlan tanto las perturbaciones del oeste (PO) durante el invierno como el monzón del suroeste durante el verano. En los meses de invierno (diciembre a marzo), los vientos del oeste asociados con PO causan precipitaciones, en ocasiones asociadas a fuertes nevadas y extensas avalanchas sobre Himachal Pradesh. Por tal motivo, el presente estudio analiza la variabilidad temporal de la frecuencia de PO y de diversos índices de precipitación (como número de días húmedos y lluviosos, días con precipitación fuerte y muy fuerte, e intensidad de la precipitación de 1977 a 2007) en Himachal Pradesh durante el invierno. También se analizan las caracterís-ticas sinópticas asociadas con PO intensas que provocaron fuertes precipitaciones sobre la región durante el Himachal Pradesh ocurre sobre todo como resultado de las PO, tanto la precipitación total como los días con precipitación fuerte y muy fuerte han disminuido en la región. El análisis también muestra una disminución de alrededor de 25% en los días de precipitación fuerte y de 13% en la precipitación invernal total sobre Himachal Pradesh respecto de su media respectiva (de 1977 a 2007). ABSTRACTThe Himalayas have an important role in Indian weather and climate, since they control the western disturbances (WDs) during winter and the southwest monsoon during summer. During the winter months (December to March), westerly winds associated with WDs cause precipitation, sometimes along with heavy snowfall, extensive avalanches, etc., over Himachal Pradesh. Therefore, this study examined the temporal variability in the winter months frequency of WDs and various precipitation indices like wet days, rainy days, rather heavy and heavy precipitation days, and precipitation intensity during 1977 to 2007 over Himachal Pradesh. The study also examined synoptic features associated with intense WDs that caused heavy precipitation over the region trend in the frequency of WDs over this region. Since winter precipitation in Himachal Pradesh mainly occurs due to WDs, total winter precipitation and frequency of rather heavy and heavy precipitation days have decreased over the region. The analysis also shows a decrease of about 25% in heavy precipitation days and of 13% in total winter precipitation from their respective mean (from 1977 to 2007) over Himachal Pradesh.
Los Himalayas desempeñan un papel importante en el clima y el tiempo meteorológico de la India, y controlan tanto las perturbaciones del oeste (PO) durante el invierno como el monzón del suroeste durante el verano. En los meses de invierno (diciembre a marzo), los vientos del oeste asociados con PO causan precipitaciones, en ocasiones asociadas a fuertes nevadas y extensas avalanchas sobre Himachal Pradesh. Por tal motivo, el presente estudio analiza la variabilidad temporal de la frecuencia de PO y de diversos índices de precipitación (como número de días húmedos y lluviosos, días con precipitación fuerte y muy fuerte, e intensidad de la precipitación de 1977 a 2007) en Himachal Pradesh durante el invierno. También se analizan las características sinópticas asociadas con PO intensas que provocaron fuertes precipitaciones sobre la región durante el Himachal Pradesh ocurre sobre todo como resultado de las PO, tanto la precipitación total como los días con precipitación fuerte y muy fuerte han disminuido en la región. El análisis también muestra una disminución de alrededor de 25% en los días de precipitación fuerte y de 13% en la precipitación invernal total sobre Himachal Pradesh respecto de su media respectiva (de 1977 a 2007).
Abstract. Spring wheat is a major food crop that is a staple for a large number of people in India and the world. To address the issue of food security, it is essential to understand how productivity of spring wheat changes with changes in environmental conditions and agricultural management practices. The goal of this study is to quantify the role of different environmental factors and management practices on wheat production in India in recent years (1980 to 2016). Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration ([CO2]) and climate change are identified as two major factors that represent changes in the environment. The addition of nitrogen fertilizers and irrigation practices are the two land-management factors considered in this study. To study the effects of these factors on wheat growth and production, we developed crop growth processes for spring wheat in India and implemented them in the Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM), a state-of-the-art land model. The model is able to capture site-level observed crop leaf area index (LAI) and country scale production. Numerical experiments are conducted with the model to quantify the effect of each factor on wheat production on a country scale for India. Our results show that elevated [CO2] levels, water availability through irrigation and nitrogen fertilizers have led to an increase in annual wheat production at 0.68, 0.24 and 0.31 Mt/yr, respectively, averaged over the time period 1980-2016. However, elevated temperatures have reduced the total wheat production at a rate of 0.37 Mt/yr during the study period. Overall, the [CO2], irrigation, fertilizers, and temperature forcings have led to 39 %, 15 %, 20 % and −16 % changes in countrywide production, respectively. The magnitudes of these factors spatially vary across the country thereby affecting production at regional scales. Results show that favourable growing season temperatures, moderate to high fertilizer application, high availability of irrigation facilities, and moderate water demand make the Indo-Gangetic plain the most productive region while the arid northwest region is the least productive due to high temperatures and lack of irrigation facilities to meet the high water demand.
Abstract. Carbon fluxes from agroecosystems contribute to the variability of the carbon cycle and atmospheric [CO2]. This study used the Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM) to investigate carbon fluxes and their variability in Indian spring wheat agroecosystems. First, ISAM was run in site-scale mode to validate GPP, TER, and NEP over an experimental spring wheat site in north India. When compared to flux-tower observations, the spring wheat module in ISAM outperformed the generic crop model. Following that, regional-scale runs were performed to simulate carbon fluxes across the country from 1980 to 2016. The results revealed that fluxes vary significantly across regions, owing primarily to differences in planting dates. Fluxes peak earlier in the country's eastern and central regions, where crops are planted earlier. During the study period, all fluxes show statistically significant increasing trends (p.01). GPP, NPP, Autotrophic Respiration (Ra), and Heterotrophic Respiration (Rh) increased at 1.272, 0.945, 0.579, 0.328, and 0.366 TgC/yr2, respectively. Numerical experiments were conducted to investigate how natural forcings such as changing temperature and [CO2] levels and agricultural management practices such as nitrogen fertilization and water availability could contribute to the rising trends. The experiments revealed that increasing [CO2], nitrogen fertilization, and irrigation water contributed to increased carbon fluxes, with nitrogen fertilization having the most significant effect.
Carbon fluxes from agroecosystems contribute to the variability in the carbon cycle and atmospheric [CO 2 ]. In this study, we used the Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM) equipped with a spring wheat module to study carbon fluxes and their variability in spring wheat agroecosystems of India. First, ISAM was run in the site-scale mode to simulate the Gross Primary Production (GPP), Total Ecosystem Respiration (TER), and Net Ecosystem Production (NEP) over an experimental spring wheat site in the north India. Comparison with flux-tower observations showed that the spring wheat module in ISAM can match the observed flux patterns better than generic crop models. Next, regional-scale runs were conducted to simulate carbon fluxes across the country for the 1980-2016 period. Results showed that the fluxes vary widely, primarily due to variations in planting dates across regions. Fluxes peak earlier in the eastern and central parts of the country, where the crops are planted earlier. All fluxes show statistically significant increasing trends (p<.01) during the study period. The GPP, Net Primary Production (NPP), Autotrophic respiration (Ra), and Heterotrophic Respiration (Rh) increased at 1.272, 0.945, 0.579, 0.328, and 0.366 TgC/yr 2 , respectively. Numerical experiments were conducted to study how natural forcings like changing temperature and [CO 2 ] and agricultural management practices like nitrogen fertilization and water availability could contribute to the increasing trends. The experiments revealed that increasing [CO2], nitrogen fertilization, and water added through irrigation contributed to the increase of carbon fluxes, with nitrogen fertilization having the strongest effect.
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