Introduction: Although forecasting electric vehicles’ growth in China was frequently reported in the literature, predicting electric vehicles market penetration as well as corresponding energy saving and carbon dioxide mitigation potential in a more suitable method is not well understood. Methods: This study chose the double species model to predict electric vehicles’ growth trajectory under mutually competitive conditions between electric vehicles and internal combustion engine vehicles. For comparison, it set two scenarios: with 200 and 300 vehicles per thousand persons at 2050. To give details on energy saving and carbon dioxide mitigation potential induced by electric vehicles’ market penetration, it further divided electric vehicles into five subgroups and internal combustion engine vehicles into seven subgroups, therein forming respective measurement formulas. Results: This paper solved the double species model and thus got its analytical formula. Then it employed the analytical formula to conduct an empirical study on electric vehicles market penetration in China from year 2010 to 2050. Under scenario 300, electric vehicles growth trajectory will emerge a quick growth stage during 2021–2035, thereafter keeping near invariant till 2050. Meanwhile, current internal combustion engine vehicles’ quick growth will continue up to 2027, then holding constant during 2028–2040, afterwards following a 10-year slowdown period. Scenario 200 has similar features, but a 2-year delay for electric vehicles and a 5-year lead time for internal combustion engine vehicles were found. On average, scenario 300 will save 114.4 Mt oil and 111.5 Mt carbon dioxide emissions, and scenario 200 will save 77.1 Mt oil and 73.4 Mt carbon dioxide emissions each year. Beyond 2032, annual 50.0% of road transport consumed oil and 18.6% of carbon dioxide emissions from this sector will be saved under scenario 300. Discussion: Compared with scenario 200, scenario 300 was more suitable to predict electric vehicle market penetration in China. In the short-term electric vehicle penetration only brings about trivial effects, while in the long-term it will contribute a lot to both energy security and carbon dioxide mitigation. The contribution of this article provided a more suitable methodology for predicting electric vehicle market penetration, simulated two coupled trajectories of electric vehicles and internal combustion engine vehicles, and discussed relative energy-saving and climate effects from 2010 to 2050.
Appropriate Greenhouse Gas (GHGs) mitigation action has become a promising concern because of its feasibility and sustainability. This article reviews mitigation approaches taken by European Union's electricity sector to promote appropriate reduction in large developing country. From an applicable and integrated aspect, it examines Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS), carbon tax, Clean Development Mechanism, Joint Implementation, green electricity market, carbon capture and sequestration, and energy efficiency. Then the successful experiences and lessons on this case are identified. The former include: allow diverse approaches coexistence, establish ancillary service system, and make carbon market serve for electricity market. The latter contain that price fluctuates inappropriately, obligation is distorted, no banking for allowances operated in the first period, and part of abatement approaches conflict mutually. Based on these results, this article proposes a framework of combinatorial mitigation actions which is characterized as integral, collaborative and appropriate reduction. It is composed of: i) construct intensity-based carbon market; ii) make diverse approaches collaborative; iii) build synergy between mitigation approaches and electricity market; iv) enhance carbon management and auditing system; and v) reform aging power plants with low carbon technologies. Although numerous challenges lie ahead, this framework has the potential to reduce GHGs from electricity industry extensively and sustainably.
Focusing on greenhouse gases (GHGs), this article explores the actual emissions and mitigation burden of coal‐fired power plants in western region of China. Utilizing the 2006 IPCC technology‐detailed methodology, this article developed a coal content‐based GHG measurement system under consideration of N2O emission and SO2 removal, thereafter employed it to evaluate 151 power plants in western China in 2014. At regional level, the three segmented emission sources: CO2 and N2O from coal combustion, and CO2 from sulfur content depreciation, each contributes to emission intensity at 1011.26, 8.24 and 6.09 gCO2e/KWh, respectively. At plant‐specific level, emission intensity is very different, with an average of 1025.60 as well as an interval of 722.38–1796.67 gCO2e/KWh, which implies large gap in mitigation burden among power plants. Comparing mitigation cost of two pathways: CCS technology and carbon market mechanism, it is verified that on average, the former induces electricity price raised by 64.84%–97.26%, while the latter only induces 8.32% upward. From mitigation burden perspective, carbon market is more feasible than CCS technology to motivate power plant to carry out GHGs abatement in the short‐run period. © 2019 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Environ Prog, 38: e13224, 2019
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