Introduction Practical algorithms predicting the probability of amyloid pathology among patients with subjective cognitive decline or mild cognitive impairment may help clinical decisions regarding confirmatory biomarker testing for Alzheimer's disease. Methods Algorithm feature selection was conducted with Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative and Australian Imaging, Biomarkers and Lifestyle Flagship Study of Ageing data. Probability algorithms were developed in Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative using nested cross‐validation accompanied by stratified subsampling to obtain 1000 internally validated decision trees. Semi‐independent validation was conducted using Australian Imaging, Biomarkers and Lifestyle Flagship Study of Ageing. Independent external validation was conducted in the population‐based Mayo Clinic Study of Aging. Results Two algorithms were developed using age and normalized immediate recall z‐scores, with or without apolipoprotein E ε4 carrier status. Both algorithms had robust performance across data sets and when substituting different recall memory tests. Discussion The statistical framework resulted in robust probability estimation. Application of these algorithms may assist in clinical decision‐making for further testing to diagnose amyloid pathology.
Alzheimer’s disease (AD) pathology develops many years before the onset of cognitive symptoms. Two pathological processes—aggregation of the amyloid-β (Aβ) peptide into plaques and the microtubule protein tau into neurofibrillary tangles (NFTs)—are hallmarks of the disease. However, other pathological brain processes are thought to be key disease mediators of Aβ plaque and NFT pathology. How these additional pathologies evolve over the course of the disease is currently unknown. Here we show that proteomic measurements in autosomal dominant AD cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) linked to brain protein coexpression can be used to characterize the evolution of AD pathology over a timescale spanning six decades. SMOC1 and SPON1 proteins associated with Aβ plaques were elevated in AD CSF nearly 30 years before the onset of symptoms, followed by changes in synaptic proteins, metabolic proteins, axonal proteins, inflammatory proteins and finally decreases in neurosecretory proteins. The proteome discriminated mutation carriers from noncarriers before symptom onset as well or better than Aβ and tau measures. Our results highlight the multifaceted landscape of AD pathophysiology and its temporal evolution. Such knowledge will be critical for developing precision therapeutic interventions and biomarkers for AD beyond those associated with Aβ and tau.
This cohort study assesses the utility of restricted mean survival time as a method for quantifying time to nursing home placement among patients with dementia.
Background: The presence of brain amyloid-beta positivity is associated with cognitive impairment and dementia, but whether there are specific aspects of cognition that are most linked to amyloid-beta is unclear. Analysis of neuropsychological test data presents challenges since a single test often requires drawing upon multiple cognitive functions to perform well. It can thus be imprecise to link performance on a given test to a specific cognitive function. Our objective was to provide insight into how cognitive functions are associated with brain amyloid-beta positivity among samples consisting of cognitively normal and mild cognitively impaired (MCI) subjects, by using partially ordered set models (POSETs).Methods: We used POSET classification models of neuropsychological test data to classify samples to detailed cognitive profiles using ADNI2 and AIBL data. We considered 3 gradations of episodic memory, cognitive flexibility, verbal fluency, attention and perceptual motor speed, and performed group comparisons of cognitive functioning stratified by amyloid positivity (yes/no) and age (<70, 70–80, 81–90 years). We also employed random forest methods stratified by age to assess the effectiveness of cognitive testing in predicting amyloid positivity, in addition to demographic variables, and APOE4 allele count.Results: In ADNI2, differences in episodic memory and attention by amyloid were found for <70, and 70–80 years groups. In AIBL, episodic memory differences were found in the 70–80 years age group. In both studies, no cognitive differences were found in the 81–90 years group. The random forest analysis indicates that variable importance in classification depends on age. Cognitive testing that targets an intermediate level of episodic memory and delayed recall, in addition to APOE4 allele count, are the most important variables in both studies.Conclusions: In the ADNI2 and AIBL samples, the associations between specific cognitive abilities and brain amyloid-beta positivity depended on age, but in general episodic memory was most consistently predictive of brain amyloid-beta positivity. Random forest methods and OOB error rates establish the feasibility of predicting the presence of brain beta-amyloid using cognitive testing, APOE4 genotyping and demographic variables.
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