To reveal the effects of artificial alteration of water level regime on the regeneration of lakeshore plants from seeds, we examined the factors causing regeneration failure in Lake Kasumigaura, Japan. A survey of microtopography within and around a remnant fragment of lakeshore vegetation revealed that, over a large range, the habitat is frequently inundated in spring under the current water regime, although it was rarely inundated under past water regimes. Analysis of the patterns of seedling emergence and establishment at microsites at various elevations revealed a significant negative correlation between number of inundation days and abundance or species-richness of seedlings that emerged in the spring. Most seedling deaths occurred when the study site was inundated. We suggest that regeneration failure caused by the artificial raising of the lake's water level is one of the principal mechanisms of the recent vegetational decline in the lake.

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