PurposeAgricultural carbon productivity considers the dual goals of “agricultural economic growth” and “carbon emission reduction”. Improving agricultural carbon productivity is a requirement for promoting green and low-carbon development of agriculture. Agricultural production agglomeration is widespread worldwide, but the relationship between agricultural production agglomeration and agricultural carbon productivity is inconclusive. This paper aims to study the impact of agricultural production agglomeration on agricultural carbon productivity, which is conducive to a better understanding of the relationships among agglomeration, agricultural economic development and carbon emission, better planning of agricultural layout to build a modern agricultural industrial system and achieve the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.Design/methodology/approachBased on China's provincial data from 1991 to 2019, this paper uses non-radial directional distance function (NDDF) and Metafrontier Malmquist–Luenberger (MML) productivity index to measure total factor agricultural carbon productivity. Subsequently, using a panel two-way fixed effect model to study the effect and mechanism of agricultural production agglomeration on agricultural carbon productivity, and the two-stage least squares method (IV-2SLS) is used to solve endogeneity. Finally, this paper formulates a moderating effect model from the perspective of the efficiency of agricultural material capital inputs.FindingsThe empirical results identify that Chinese provincial agricultural carbon productivity has an overall growth trend and agricultural technological progress is the major source of growth. There is an inverted U-shaped relationship between agricultural production agglomeration and agricultural carbon productivity. The input efficiency of agricultural film, machine and water resources have moderating effects on the inverted U-shaped relationship. Agricultural production agglomeration also promotes agricultural carbon productivity by inhibiting agricultural carbon emissions in addition to affecting agricultural input factors and its internal mechanisms are agricultural green technology progress and rural human capital improvement.Originality/valueThis paper innovatively adopts the NDDF–MML method to measure the total factor agricultural carbon productivity more scientifically and accurately and solves the problems of ignoring group heterogeneity and the shortcomings of traditional productivity measurement in previous studies. This paper also explains the inverted U-shaped relationship between agricultural production agglomeration and agricultural carbon productivity theoretically and empirically. Furthermore, from the perspective of agricultural material capital input efficiency, this paper discusses the moderating effect of input efficiency of fertilizers, pesticides, agricultural film, agricultural machines and water resources on agricultural production agglomeration affecting agricultural carbon productivity and answers the mechanism of carbon emission reduction of agricultural production agglomeration.

The focus of world governance on climate change has been on the industrial and transport sectors, yet the agricultural sector produces a lot of greenhouse gases, and this has always been ignored. This paper focuses on China, one of the world’s largest agricultural countries, and it investigates its agriculture carbon emission from a new perspective of the internal structure of it, which is relatively under-researched. Carbon metrology, the emission factor method and kernel density estimations are used to analyze China’s agricultural carbon emissions structure and its regional differences and its dynamic evolution characteristics. We find that: (1) China’s total amount of agricultural carbon emissions showed a ladder-like upward trend, but the growth rate of it has gradually slowed down; the inter-provincial heterogeneity of the agricultural carbon emissions was obvious. (2) From the standpoint of the grain functional areas, the annual total amount of agricultural carbon emissions and the amount of carbon emissions of each carbon source in the major grain producing areas were significantly higher than those in the major grain sales areas and the production–sales balance areas, and the carbon emission intensity in the major grain producing areas was the lowest overall. (3) In regard to the internal structure, China’s agricultural carbon emissions mainly came from the livestock and poultry, rice planting and agricultural energy sectors; the proportion of carbon emissions that were caused by the agricultural materials, agricultural energy and soil increased in general, and the inter-provincial differences between them expanded, while the inter-provincial differences between livestock and poultry gradually decreased. The proportion of carbon emissions from the six major agricultural carbon sources showed a convergence trend, and their kernel density had a right tail phenomenon. Our research deepens the understanding of China’s agricultural carbon emission structure, contributes to the rational optimization of the agricultural structure, and helps the agriculture sector and the rural areas to reach the carbon peak.

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