Aim. To determine morbidity and mortality in elderly patients following hip fracture surgery in Egypt and its correlates and to determine the utility of the POSSUM scale to predict morbidity and mortality among our population. Methodology. We assessed postoperative morbidity and mortality following hip fracture surgery in a 6-month prospective observational study of 100 elderly patients who were undergoing surgical repair at the beginning of the study. The exclusion criteria included surgically unfit patients and patients refusing to participate in the study. The study was conducted in Ain Shams University Hospital, Ain Shams Specialized Hospital, and El-helal Hospital. Results. The subjects were categorized as survivors and nonsurvivors according to the 6-month mortality, and the groups were compared statistically according to this classification. The observed 6-month mortality was 19.56%. POSSUM had high specificity for predicting 6-month survival (97.3%). A multivariate regression analysis revealed that postoperative admission to the intensive care unit and lack of ambulation were major risk factors associated with the 6-month mortality. Conclusions. The POSSUM system had high specificity for predicting survivors (97.3%) but failed to predict mortality (sensitivity = 5.6%). The major risks for 6-month mortality are intensive care unit admission and lack of ambulation.

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Poor nutritional status, frailty and a lower zinc level impair the immunological response of elderly individuals.

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a b s t r a c tBackground/Purpose: Falls and their related complications are serious health problems among the institutionalized older population. This study aimed to evaluate the incidence of falls and the risk factors among nursing home residents in Cairo, Egypt. Methods: A one-year prospective cohort study was done in three nursing homes in Cairo. Overall, 84 residents aged over 60 years participated in this study. Baseline demographic characteristics and results of comprehensive geriatric assessments, e.g. cognition, depression, functional and nutritional status, previous falls, fear of falling, assistive device use, and assessment by the timed up-and-go test (TUG) test were collected. All falling accidents were recorded by the nursing home staff during the study period. Results: During the study period, 163 incident falls (1940 falls/ 1000 resident-years) were identified in 53 fallers (631 fallers/1000 resident-years) were recorded. On average, fallers may fall twice a year (mean AE SD 2.0 AE 2.1 episodes, range 1e6). Compared to nonfallers, fallers were older, more likely to have hadprevious falls, fear of falling, frailty, impaired instrumental activities of daily living, poor cognitive status, malnutrition or its risk, assistive device use, and slower TUG. The most sensitive (86.8%) and specific (90.3%) predictor for falls in this study was TUG >14 seconds. Conclusion: Sixty-three percent of Egyptian nursing home residents may fall during one year follow-up with the incidence of 1019 falls/1000 resident-years. The most important predictive factor for falls in this study was the TUG >14 seconds.