Although the potential causes and consequences of recent rising international food prices have attracted widespread attention, many existing appraisals are superficial and/or piecemeal. This article attempts to provide a more comprehensive review of these issues based on the best and most recent research, as well as on fresh theoretical and empirical analysis. We first analyze the causes of the current crisis by considering how well standard explanations hold up against relevant economic theory and important stylized facts. Some explanations turn out to hold up much better than others, especially rising oil prices, the depreciation of the U.S. dollar, biofuels demand, and some commodity-specific explanations. We then provide an appraisal of the likely macro-and microeconomic impacts of the crisis on developing countries. We observe a large gap between macro and micro factors, which, when identifying the most vulnerable countries, often point in different directions. We conclude with a brief discussion of what ought to be learned from this crisis.JEL classification: N50, O11, O12, O13
Using state-level data for 1970–93, a simultaneous equation model was developed to estimate the direct and indirect effects of different types of government expenditure on ruralpoverty and productivity growth in India. The results show that in order to reduce rural poverty, the Indian government should give highest priority to additionalinvestments in ruralroads and agriculturalresearch. These types of investment not only have much larger poverty impacts per rupee spent than any other government investment, but also generate higher productivity growth. Apart from government spending on education, which has the third largest marginalimpact on ruralpoverty and productivity growth, other investments (including irrigation, soil and water conservation, health, and rural and community development) have only modest impacts on growth and poverty per additional rupee spent. Copyright 2000, Oxford University Press.
Recent rapid agricultural production growth in Chinese agriculture could be attributed to an increase in inputs, technological change, and institutional reform. An accounting approach was used to separate the relative contribution of these three factors. Institutional change, like the introduction of the household production responsibility system, has contributed to past growth in production. However, technological change is crucial to furthering production growth because of the limited potential for significant increase in the use of conventional inputs, in particular land. Continued institutional change must accompany corresponding technological changes.
This article reviews the trends in government subsidies and investments in and for Indian agriculture; develops a conceptual framework and a model to assess the impact of various subsidies and investments on agricultural growth and poverty reduction; and presents reform options with regard to re-prioritizing government spending. Subsidies in credit, fertilizer, and irrigation have been crucial for small farmers to adopt new technologies particularly during the initial stage of the green revolution in the late 1960s and 1970s. But it is now investments in agricultural research, education, and rural roads that are the three most effective public spending items in promoting agricultural growth and reducing poverty. Copyright (c)2008 International Association of Agricultural Economists.
Using district-level data for 1992Using district-level data for , 1995Using district-level data for , and 1999, the study estimated effects of different types of government expenditure on agricultural growth and rural poverty in Uganda. The results reveal that government spending on agricultural research and extension improved agricultural production substantially. This type of expenditure had the largest measured returns to growth in agricultural production. Agricultural research and extension spending also had the largest assessed impact on poverty reduction. Government spending on rural roads also had a substantial marginal impact on rural poverty reduction. The impact of low-grade roads such as feeder roads is larger than that of high-grade roads such as murram and tarmac roads. Education's effects rank after agricultural research and extension, and roads. Government spending in health did not show a large impact on growth in agricultural productivity or a reduction in rural poverty. Additional investments in the northern region (a poor region) contribute the most to reducing poverty. However, it is the western region (a relatively welldeveloped region) where most types of investment have highest returns in terms of increased agricultural productivity.
Small farms characterize agriculture in Asia. With the fragmentation of land holdings, the average size of farms fell in the region, while the number of small-size holdings increased significantly. These small-scale farmers play an important role for food security and poverty alleviation. However, whether and how these small farms can survive under globalization is a hotly debated topic. In particular, the traditional claim that "small is beautiful," which is based on empirical observation that small farms present higher land productivity than large farms, is being challenged. It has been shown that a positive relationship also exists between farm size and labor productivity (and therefore income). To help these small farms prosper under increasing globalization, the governments have to change the "business as usual" attitude. Innovative land reform, for example, is crucial to secure property rights to farmers and to increase farm size. Equally important is the reform of public institutions in order to help small farmers to have access to credit, marketing, and technology. Moreover, promoting diversification in the production of high-value commodities can play an important role in raising the small-holders' income. Finally, policies that facilitate urban-rural migration and promote the development of the rural nonfarm sector are essential to help alleviate poverty among small-farm households and among the rural poor in general. Copyright 2005 International Association of Agricultural Economics.
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