Introduction Retention in HIV care is a challenge in Mozambique. Mozambique´s southern provinces have the highest mobility levels of the country. Mobility may result in poorer response to HIV care and treatment initiatives. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional survey to explore the impact of mobility on retention for HIV-positive adults on ART presenting to the clinic in December 2017 and January 2018. Survey data were linked to participant clinical records from the HIV care and treatment program. This study took place in Manhiça District, southern Mozambique. We enrolled self-identified migrants (moved outside of Manhiça District ≤12 months prior to survey) and non-migrants, matched by age and sex. Results 390 HIV-positive adults were included. We found frequent movement: 45% of migrants reported leaving the district 3–5 times over the past 12 months, usually for extended stays. South Africa was the most common destination (71%). Overall, 30% of participants had at least one delay (15–60 days) in ART pick-up and 11% were delayed >60 days, though no significant difference was seen between mobile and non-mobile cohorts. Few migrants accessed care while traveling. Conclusion Our population of mobile and non-mobile participants showed frequent lapses in ART pick-up. Mobility could be for extended time periods and HIV care frequently did not continue at the destination. Studies are needed to evaluate the impact of Mozambique´s approach of providing 3-months ART among mobile populations and barriers to care while traveling, as is better education on how and where to access care when traveling.

Logistic regression (LR) is the most common prediction model in medicine. In recent years, supervised machine learning (ML) methods have gained popularity. However, there are many concerns about ML utility for small sample sizes. In this study, we aim to compare the performance of 7 algorithms in the prediction of 1-year mortality and clinical progression to AIDS in a small cohort of infants living with HIV from South Africa and Mozambique. The data set (n = 100) was randomly split into 70% training and 30% validation set. Seven algorithms (LR, Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN), Naïve Bayes (NB), Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and Elastic Net) were compared. The variables included as predictors were the same across the models including sociodemographic, virologic, immunologic, and maternal status features. For each of the models, a parameter tuning was performed to select the best-performing hyperparameters using 5 times repeated 10-fold cross-validation. A confusion-matrix was built to assess their accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity. RF ranked as the best algorithm in terms of accuracy (82,8%), sensitivity (78%), and AUC (0,73). Regarding specificity and sensitivity, RF showed better performance than the other algorithms in the external validation and the highest AUC. LR showed lower performance compared with RF, SVM, or KNN. The outcome of children living with perinatally acquired HIV can be predicted with considerable accuracy using ML algorithms. Better models would benefit less specialized staff in limited resources countries to improve prompt referral in case of high-risk clinical progression.

Telephone tracing could be an effective tool for facilitating reengagement in pediatric HIV care. However, the difficulty of reaching patients is an obstacle that can undermine the program.

Background Eliminating mother-to-child HIV-transmission (EMTCT) implies a case rate target of new pediatric HIV-infections< 50/100,000 live-births and a transmission rate < 5%. We assessed these indicators at community-level in Mozambique, where MTCT is the second highest globally.. Methods A cross-sectional household survey was conducted within the Manhiça Health Demographic Surveillance System in Mozambique (October 2017–April 2018). Live births in the previous 4 years were randomly selected, and mother/child HIV-status was ascertained through documentation or age-appropriate testing. Estimates on prevalence and transmission were adjusted by multiple imputation chained equation (MICE) for participants with missing HIV-status. Retrospective cumulative mortality rate and risk factors were estimate by Fine-Gray model. Results Among 5000 selected mother-child pairs, 3486 consented participate. Community HIV-prevalence estimate in mothers after MICE adjustment was 37.6% (95%CI:35.8–39.4%). Estimates doubled in adolescents aged < 19 years (from 8.0 to 19.1%) and increased 1.5-times in mothers aged < 25 years. Overall adjusted vertical HIV-transmission at the time of the study were 4.4% (95% CI:3.1–5.7%) in HIV-exposed children (HEC). Pediatric case rate-infection was estimated at 1654/100,000 live-births. Testing coverage in HEC was close to 96.0%; however, only 69.1% of them were tested early(< 2 months of age). Cumulative child mortality rate was 41.6/1000 live-births. HIV-positive status and later birth order were significantly associated with death. Neonatal complications, HIV and pneumonia were main pediatric causes of death. Conclusions In Mozambique, SPECTRUM modeling estimated 15% MTCT, higher than our district-level community-based estimates of MTCT among HIV-exposed children. Community-based subnational assessments of progress towards EMTCT are needed to complement clinic-based and modeling estimates.

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Objective World Health Organization recommends promoting breastfeeding without restricting its duration among HIV-positive women on lifelong antiretroviral treatment (ART). There is little data on breastfeeding duration and mother to child transmission (MTCT) beyond 24 months. We compared the duration of breastfeeding in HIV-exposed and HIV-unexposed children and we identified factors associated with postpartum-MTCT in a semi-rural population of Mozambique. Methods This cross-sectional assessment was conducted from October-2017 to April-2018. Mothers who had given birth within the previous 48-months in the Manhiça district were randomly selected to be surveyed and to receive an HIV-test along with their children. Postpartum MTCT was defined as children with an initial HIV positive result beyond 6 weeks of life who initiated breastfeeding if they had a first negative PCR result during the first 6 weeks of life or whose mother had an estimated date of infection after the child’s birth. Cumulative incidence accounting for right-censoring was used to compare breastfeeding duration in HIV-exposed and unexposed children. Fine-Gray regression was used to assess factors associated with postpartum-MTCT. Results Among the 5000 mother-child pairs selected, 69.7% (3486/5000) were located and enrolled. Among those, 27.7% (967/3486) children were HIV-exposed, 62.2% (2169/3486) were HIV-unexposed and for 10.0% (350/3486) HIV-exposure was unknown. Median duration of breastfeeding was 13.0 (95%CI:12.0–14.0) and 20.0 (95%CI:19.0–20.0) months among HIV-exposed and HIV-unexposed children, respectively (p<0.001). Of the 967 HIV-exposed children, 5.3% (51/967) were HIV-positive at the time of the survey. We estimated that 27.5% (14/51) of the MTCT occurred during pregnancy and delivery, 49.0% (2551) postpartum-MTCT and the period of MTCT remained unknown for 23.5% (12/51) of children. In multivariable analysis, mothers’ ART initiation after the date of childbirth was associated (aSHR:9.39 [95%CI:1.75–50.31], p = 0.001), however breastfeeding duration was not associated with postpartum-MTCT (aSHR:0.99 [95%CI:0.96–1.03], p = 0.707). Conclusion The risk for postpartum MTCT was nearly tenfold higher in women newly diagnosed and/or initiating ART postpartum. This highlights the importance of sustained HIV screening and prompt ART initiation in postpartum women in Sub-Saharan African countries. Under conditions where HIV-exposed infants born to mothers on ART receive adequate PMTCT, extending breastfeeding duration may be recommended.

Introduction Manhiça District, in Southern Mozambique harbors high HIV prevalence and a long history of migration. To optimize HIV care, we sought to assess how caregiver’s mobility impacts children living with HIV (CLHIV)´s continuation in HIV care and to explore the strategies used by caregivers to maintain their CLHIV on antiretroviral treatment (ART). Methods A clinic-based cross-sectional survey conducted at the Manhiça District Hospital between December-2017 and February-2018. We enrolled CLHIV with a self-identified migrant caregiver (moved outside of Manhiça District ≤12 months prior to survey) and non-migrant caregiver, matched by the child age and sex. Survey data were linked to CLHIV clinical records from the HIV care and treatment program. Results Among the 975 CLHIV screened, 285 (29.2%) were excluded due to absence of an adult at the appointment. A total of 232 CLHIV-caregiver pairs were included. Of the 41 (35%) CLHIV migrating with their caregivers, 38 (92.6%) had access to ART at the destination because either the caregivers travelled with it 24 (63%) or it was sent by a family member 14 (36%). Among the 76 (65%) CLHIV who did not migrate with their caregivers, for the purpose of pharmacy visits, 39% were cared by their grandfather/grandmother, 28% by an aunt/uncle and 16% by an adult brother/sister. CLHIV of migrant caregivers had a non-statistically significant increase in the number of previous reported sickness episodes (OR = 1.38, 95%CI: 0.79–2.42; p = 0.257), ART interruptions (OR = 1.73; 95%CI: 0.82–3.63; p = 0.142) and lost-to-follow-up episodes (OR = 1.53; 95%CI: 0.80–2.94; p = 0.193). Conclusions Nearly one third of the children attend their HIV care appointments unaccompanied by an adult. The caregiver mobility was not found to significantly affect child’s retention on ART. Migrant caregivers adopted strategies such as the transportation of ART to the mobility destination to avoid impact of mobility on the child’s HIV care. However this may have implications on ART stability and effectiveness that should be investigated in rural areas.

Background: There are 170,000 children living with HIV in 2017 in Mozambique. Scaling-up HIV care requires effective retention along the cascade. We sought to evaluate the pediatric cascade in HIV care at the Manhiça District Hospital. Methods: A prospective cohort of children <15 years was followed from enrollment in HIV care (January 2013 to December 2015) until December 2016. Loss to follow-up (LTFU) was defined as not attending the HIV hospital visits for ≥90 days following last visit attended. Results: From the 438 children included {median age at enrollment in care of 3,6 [interquartile range (IQR): 1.1–8.6] years}, 335 (76%) were antiretroviral therapy (ART) eligible and among those, 263 (78%) started ART at enrollment in HIV care. A total of 362 children initiated ART during the study period and the incidence rate of LTFU at 12, 24, and 36 months post-ART initiation was 41 [95% confidence interval (CI): 34–50], 34 (95% CI: 29–41), and 31 (95% CI: 27–37) per 100 children-years, respectively. Median time to LTFU was 5.8 (IQR: 1.4–12.7) months. Children 5–9 years of age had a lower risk of LTFU compared with children <1 year [adjusted subhazard ratio 0.36 (95% CI: 0.20–0.61)]. Re-engagement in care (RIC) was observed in 25% of the LTFU children. Conclusions: The high LTFU found in this study highlights the special attention that should be given to younger children during the first 6 months post-ART initiation to prevent LTFU. Once LTFU, only a quarter of those children return to the health unit. Elucidating factors associated with RIC could help to fine tune interventions which promote RIC.