Time series data from real problems have nonlinear, non-smooth, and multi-scale composite characteristics. This paper first proposes a gated recurrent unit-correction (GRU-corr) network model, which adds a correction layer to the GRU neural network. Then, a adaptive staged variation PSO (ASPSO) is proposed. Finally, to overcome the drawbacks of the imprecise selection of the GRU-corr network parameters and obtain the high-precision global optimization of network parameters, weight parameters and the hidden nodes number of GRU-corr is optimized by ASPSO, and a time series prediction model (ASPSO-GRU-corr) is proposed based on the GRU-corr optimized by ASPSO. In the experiment, a comparative analysis of the optimization performance of ASPSO on a benchmark function was performed to verify its validity, and then the ASPSO-GRU-corr model is used to predict the ship motion cross-sway angle data. The results show that, ASPSO has better optimization performance and convergence speed compared with other algorithms, while the ASPSO-GRU-corr has higher generalization performance and lower architecture complexity. The ASPSO-GRU-corr can reveal the intrinsic multi-scale composite features of the time series, which is a reliable nonlinear and non-steady time series prediction method.
Abstract. Because the weights and thresholds of BP neural network usually adopt random assignment, there is a problem of low accuracy in software reliability prediction. In order to solve this problem, a software reliability prediction algorithm (MHPSO-BP) based on multi-layer heterogeneous PSO optimized BP neural network is proposed in this paper. In this algorithm, the population structure of the particle swarm is set to the hierarchical structure, and the velocity updating equation of the particle is improved by using the attractor. The information interaction between the particles is enhanced, and the optimization performance of the particle swarm optimization algorithm is improved. And then use the improved PSO to optimize the weight and threshold of the BP neural network. The software reliability prediction experiment was performed using the JM1 software defect data set of the NASA-MDP project during the experiment. The results show that the proposed method has better predictive performance than the traditional BP neural network.
The traditional network security situation prediction method depends on the accuracy of historical situation values, and there are correlations and differences in importance among various network security factors. To solve the above problems, a combined forecasting model based on Empirical Mode Decomposition and improved Particle Swarm Optimization (ELPSO) to optimize BiGRU neural network (EMD-ELPSO-BiGRU) is proposed. Firstly, the model decomposes the network security situation data sequence into a series of intrinsic modal components by empirical mode decomposition; Then, the prediction model of the BiGRU neural network is established for each modal component, and an improved Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm (ELPSO) is proposed to optimize the super parameters of BiGRU neural network. Finally, the prediction results of each modal component are superimposed to obtain the final prediction value of the network security situation. In the experiment, on the one hand, ELPSO is compared with other particle swarm optimization algorithms, and the results show that ELPSO has better optimization performance; On the other hand, through simulation test and comparison between EMD-ELPSO-BiGRU and other traditional forecasting methods, the results show that the established combined forecasting model has higher forecasting accuracy.
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