The nonlinear Schrödinger equation (NLSE) is a seminal equation of nonlinear physics describing wave packet evolution in weakly-nonlinear dispersive media. The NLSE is especially important in understanding how high amplitude “rogue waves” emerge from noise through the process of modulation instability (MI) whereby a perturbation on an initial plane wave can evolve into strongly-localised “breather” or “soliton on finite background (SFB)” structures. Although there has been much study of such structures excited under controlled conditions, there remains the open question of how closely the analytic solutions of the NLSE actually model localised structures emerging in noise-seeded MI. We address this question here using numerical simulations to compare the properties of a large ensemble of emergent peaks in noise-seeded MI with the known analytic solutions of the NLSE. Our results show that both elementary breather and higher-order SFB structures are observed in chaotic MI, with the characteristics of the noise-induced peaks clustering closely around analytic NLSE predictions. A significant conclusion of our work is to suggest that the widely-held view that the Peregrine soliton forms a rogue wave prototype must be revisited. Rather, we confirm earlier suggestions that NLSE rogue waves are most appropriately identified as collisions between elementary SFB solutions.

Modulation instability is a fundamental process of nonlinear science, leading to the unstable breakup of a constant amplitude solution of a physical system. There has been particular interest in studying modulation instability in the cubic nonlinear Schrödinger equation, a generic model for a host of nonlinear systems including superfluids, fibre optics, plasmas and Bose–Einstein condensates. Modulation instability is also a significant area of study in the context of understanding the emergence of high amplitude events that satisfy rogue wave statistical criteria. Here, exploiting advances in ultrafast optical metrology, we perform real-time measurements in an optical fibre system of the unstable breakup of a continuous wave field, simultaneously characterizing emergent modulation instability breather pulses and their associated statistics. Our results allow quantitative comparison between experiment, modelling and theory, and are expected to open new perspectives on studies of instability dynamics in physics.