Planet yield calculations may be used to inform the target selection strategy and science operations of space observatories. Forthcoming and proposed NASA missions, such as the Wide-Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST), the Habitable Exoplanet Imaging Mission (HabEx), and the Large UV/Optical/IR Surveyor (LUVOIR), are expected to be equipped with sensitive coronagraphs and/or starshades. We are developing a suite of numerical simulations to quantify the extent to which ground-based radial velocity (RV) surveys could boost the detection efficiency of direct imaging missions. In this paper, we discuss the first step in the process of estimating planet yields: generating synthetic planetary systems consistent with observed occurrence rates from multiple detection methods. In an attempt to self-consistently populate stars with orbiting planets, it is found that naive extrapolation of occurrence rates (mass, semi-major axis) results in an unrealistically large numberdensity of Neptune-mass planets beyond the ice-line (a 5au), causing dynamic interactions that would destabilize orbits. We impose a stability criterion for multi-planet systems based on mutual Hill radii separation. Considering the influence of compact configurations containing Jovian-mass and Neptune-mass planets results in a marked suppression in the number of terrestrial planets that can exist at large radii. This result has a pronounced impact on planet yield calculations particularly in regions accessible to high-contrast imaging and microlensing. The dynamically compact configurations and occurrence rates that we develop may be incorporated as input into joint RV and direct imaging yield calculations to place meaningful limits on the number of detectable planets with future missions.
Brown dwarfs with well-determined ages, luminosities, and masses provide rare but valuable tests of low-temperature atmospheric and evolutionary models. We present the discovery and dynamical mass measurement of a substellar companion to HD 47127, an old (≈7–10 Gyr) G5 main-sequence star with a mass similar to the Sun. Radial velocities of the host star with the Harlan J. Smith Telescope uncovered a low-amplitude acceleration of 1.93 ± 0.08 m s−1 yr−1 based on 20 years of monitoring. We subsequently recovered a faint (ΔH = 13.14 ± 0.15 mag) comoving companion at 1.″95 (52 au) with follow-up Keck/NIRC2 adaptive optics imaging. The radial acceleration of HD 47127 together with its tangential acceleration from Hipparcos and Gaia EDR3 astrometry provide a direct measurement of the three-dimensional acceleration vector of the host star, enabling a dynamical mass constraint for HD 47127 B (67.5–177 M Jup at 95% confidence) despite the small fractional orbital coverage of the observations. The absolute H-band magnitude of HD 47127 B is fainter than the benchmark T dwarfs HD 19467 B and Gl 229 B but brighter than Gl 758 B and HD 4113 C, suggesting a late-T spectral type. Altogether the mass limits for HD 47127 B from its dynamical mass and the substellar boundary imply a range of 67–78 M Jup assuming it is single, although a preference for high masses of ≈100 M Jup from dynamical constraints hints at the possibility that HD 47127 B could itself be a binary pair of brown dwarfs or that another massive companion resides closer in. Regardless, HD 47127 B will be an excellent target for more refined orbital and atmospheric characterization in the future.
High-contrast direct imaging of exoplanets can provide many important observables, including measurements of the orbit, spectra that probe the lower layers of the atmosphere, and phase variations of the planet, but cannot directly measure planet radius or mass. Our future understanding of directly imaged exoplanets will therefore rely on extrapolated models of planetary atmospheres and bulk composition, which need robust calibration. We estimate the population of extrasolar planets that could serve as calibrators for these models. Critically, this population of “standard planets” must be accessible to both direct imaging and the transit method, allowing for radius measurement. We show that the search volume of a direct imaging mission eventually overcomes the transit probability falloff with semimajor axis, so that as long as cold planets are not exceedingly rare, the population of transiting planets and directly imageable planets overlaps. Using current extrapolations of Kepler occurrence rates, we estimate that ∼8 standard planets could be characterized shortward of 800 nm with an ambitious future direct imaging mission like LUVOIR-A and several dozen could be detected at the V band. We show the design space that would expand the sample size and discuss the extent to which ground- and space-based surveys could detect this small but crucial population of planets.
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