No abstract

Recurrent, tidally driven coastal flooding is one of the most visible signs of sea level rise. Recent studies have shown that such flooding will become more frequent and extensive as sea level continues to rise, potentially altering the landscape and livability of coastal communities decades before sea level rise causes coastal land to be permanently inundated. In this study, we identify US communities that will face effective inundation—defined as having 10% or more of livable land area flooded at least 26 times per year—with three localized sea level rise scenarios based on projections for the 3rd US National Climate Assessment. We present these results in a new, online interactive tool that allows users to explore when and how effective inundation will impact their communities. In addition, we identify communities facing effective inundation within the next 30 years that contain areas of high socioeconomic vulnerability today using a previously published vulnerability index. With the Intermediate-High and Highest sea level rise scenarios, 489 and 668 communities, respectively, would face effective inundation by the year 2100. With these two scenarios, more than half of communities facing effective inundation by 2045 contain areas of current high socioeconomic vulnerability. These results highlight the timeframes that US coastal communities have to respond to disruptive future inundation. The results also underscore the importance of limiting future warming and sea level rise: under the Intermediate-Low scenario, used as a proxy for sea level rise under the Paris Climate Agreement, 199 fewer communities would be effectively inundated by 2100.

Resource exploitation in lowland tropical forests is increasing and causing loss of biodiversity. Effective evaluation and management of the impacts of development on tropical forests requires appropriate assessment and monitoring tools. We propose the use of 0.1-ha multi-scale, modified Whittaker plots (MWPs) to assess and monitor vegetation in lowland tropical rainforests. We established MWPs at 4 sites to: (1) describe and compare composition and structure of the sites using MWPs, (2) compare these results to those of 1-ha permanent vegetation plots (BDPs), and (3) evaluate the ability of MWPs to detect changes in populations (statistical power). We recorded more than 400 species at each site. Species composition among the sites was distinctive, while mean abundance and basal area was similar. Comparisons between MWPs and BDPs show that they record similar species composition and abundance and that both perform equally well at detecting rare species. However, MWPs tend to record more species, and power analysis studies show that MWPs were more effective at detecting changes in the mean number of species of trees > or = 10 cm in diameter at breast height (dbh) and in herbaceous plants. Ten MWPs were sufficient to detect a change of 11% in the mean number of herb species, and they were able to detect a 14% change in the mean number of species of trees > or =10 cm dbh. The value of MWPs for assessment and monitoring is discussed, along with recommendations for improving the sampling design to increase power.