Dexamethasone can reduce mortality in hospitalised COVID-19 patients needing oxygen and ventilation by 18% and 36%, respectively. Here, we estimate the potential number of lives saved and life years gained if this treatment were to be rolled out in the UK and globally, as well as the cost-effectiveness of implementing this intervention. Assuming SARS-CoV-2 exposure levels of 5% to 15%, we estimate that, for the UK, approximately 12,000 (4,250 - 27,000) lives could be saved between July and December 2020. Assuming that dexamethasone has a similar effect size in settings where access to oxygen therapies is limited, this would translate into approximately 650,000 (240,000 - 1,400,000) lives saved globally over the same time period. If dexamethasone acts differently in these settings, the impact could be less than half of this value. To estimate the full potential of dexamethasone in the global fight against COVID-19, it is essential to perform clinical research in settings with limited access to oxygen and/or ventilators, for example in low- and middle-income countries.
Introduction: Childhood undernutrition is a crucial public health problem globally. The objective of this study is to measure the prevalence of childhood undernutrition and assess the distinct role of various factors on childhood undernutrition in Bangladesh. Methods: This study utilized the latest cross-sectional data from Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey 2014. A total of 7256 data on children younger than 5 years old were analyzed. The undernutrition status of children was assessed by stunting (height-for-age), wasting (weight-for-height), and underweight (weight-for-age), while bivariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify various individual-, household-, and community-level factors of childhood undernutrition. Results: The prevalence of stunting, wasting, and underweight were 36.5%, 14.6%, and 32.5%, respectively. Along with various individual- and household-level factors (eg, age, recent diarrheal disease, fever, number of under-5 children in the household, mother’s education and nutritional status, and wealth status), community index, particularly regional and geographic variation of community, had significant role for childhood undernutrition in Bangladesh. Conclusion: Childhood undernutrition is an overwhelming public health issue in Bangladesh. In order to improve the nutritional status of under-5 children, interventions should take into account the various predictors discussed in this study. Indeed, a joint effort by the government, nongovernmental organizations, and the community is necessary to improve the childhood nutritional status in Bangladesh.
Objectives
In this study we compared two predictions of COVID-19 cases in the Kingdom Saudi Arabia (KSA) using pre–and post–relaxation of lockdown period data to provide an insight regarding rational exit strategies. We also applied these projections to understand economic costs versus health benefit of lockdown measures.
Methods
We analyzed open access data on COVID-19 cases from March 6 to January 16, 2021 in the KSA. To understand the epidemic projection during the pre- and post-lockdown period, we used two types of modeling: the SIR model, and the time series model. We also estimated the costs and benefits of lockdown- QALY gained compared to the costs of lockdown considering the payment threshold of the Government.
Results
Prediction using lockdown period data suggested that the epidemic might slow down significantly after 109 thousand cases and end on October 6, 2020. However, analysis with latest data after easing lockdown measures suggested that epidemic might be close to an end on October 28, 2021 with 358 thousand cases. The peak has also been shifted from May 18, 2020 to Jun 24, 2020. While earlier model predicted a steady growth in mid-June, the revised model with latest data predicted it in mid-August. In addition, we estimated that 4986 lives would have been saved if lockdown continued but the cost per life saved would be more than $378 thousand, which is way above not only the KSA threshold, but also the threshold of any other highly advanced economies such as the UK and the USA.
Conclusions
Our results suggest that relaxation of lockdown measures negatively impacts the epidemic. However, considering the negative impact of prolong lockdown measures on health and economy, countries must decide on the best timing and strategy to exit from such measures to safely return to normal life with minimum loss of lives and economy considering its economic and health systems’ capacity. Instead of focusing only on health, a balanced approach taking economy under consideration is recommended.
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