Importance Prior pandemics have disparately affected socially vulnerable communities. Whether regional variations in social vulnerability to disasters influence COVID-19 outcomes and incidence in the U.S. is unknown. Objective To examine the association of Social Vulnerability Index (SVI), a percentile-based measure of county-level social vulnerability to disasters, and its sub-components (socioeconomic status, household composition, minority status, and housing type/transportation accessibility) with the case fatality rate (CFR) and incidence of COVID-19. Design Ecological study of counties with at least 50 confirmed COVID-19 cases as of April 4th, 2020. Generalized linear mixed-effects models with state-level clustering were applied to estimate county-level associations of overall SVI and its sub-component scores with COVID-19 CFR (deaths/100 cases) and incidence (cases/1000 population), adjusting for population percentage aged >65 years, and for comorbidities using the average Hierarchical Condition Category (HCC) score. Counties with high SVI (≥median) and high CFR (≥median) were identified. Setting Population-based study of U.S. county-level data. Participants U.S. counties with at least 50 confirmed COVID-19 cases. Main outcomes and measures COVID-19 CFR and incidence. Results Data from 433 counties including 283,256 cases and 6,644 deaths were analyzed. Median SVI was 0.46 [Range: 0.01-1.00], and median CFR and incidence were 1.9% [Range: 0-13.3] and 1.2 per 1000 people [Range: 0.6-38.8], respectively. Higher SVI, indicative of greater social vulnerability, was associated with higher CFR (RR: 1.19 [1.05, 1.34], p=0.005, per-1 unit increase), an association that strengthened after adjustment for age>65 years and comorbidities (RR: 1.63 [1.38, 1.91], p<0.001), and was further confirmed in a sensitivity analysis limited to six states with the highest testing levels. Although the association between overall SVI and COVID-19 incidence was not significant, the SVI sub-components of socioeconomic status and minority status were both predictors of higher incidence and CFR. A combination of high SVI (≥0.46) and high adjusted CFR (≥2.3%) was observed in 28.9% of counties. Conclusions and Relevance Social vulnerability is associated with higher COVID-19 case fatality. High social vulnerability and CFR coexist in more than 1 in 4 U.S. counties. These counties should be targeted by public policy interventions to help alleviate the pandemic burden on the most vulnerable population.

BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic adversely affected the socially vulnerable and minority communities in the USA initially, but the temporal trends during the year-long pandemic remain unknown.ObjectiveWe examined the temporal association of county-level Social Vulnerability Index (SVI), a percentile-based measure of social vulnerability to disasters, its subcomponents and race/ethnic composition with COVID-19 incidence and mortality in the USA in the year starting in March 2020.MethodsCounties (n=3091) with ≥50 COVID-19 cases by 6 March 2021 were included in the study. Associations between SVI (and its subcomponents) and county-level racial composition with incidence and death per capita were assessed by fitting a negative-binomial mixed-effects model. This model was also used to examine potential time-varying associations between weekly number of cases/deaths and SVI or racial composition. Data were adjusted for percentage of population aged ≥65 years, state-level testing rate, comorbidities using the average Hierarchical Condition Category score, and environmental factors including average fine particulate matter of diameter ≥2.5 μm, temperature and precipitation.ResultsHigher SVI, indicative of greater social vulnerability, was independently associated with higher COVID-19 incidence (adjusted incidence rate ratio per 10 percentile increase: 1.02, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.03, p<0.001) and death per capita (1.04, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.05, p<0.001). SVI became an independent predictor of incidence starting from March 2020, but this association became weak or insignificant by the winter, a period that coincided with a sharp increase in infection rates and mortality, and when counties with higher proportion of white residents were disproportionately represented (‘third wave’). By spring of 2021, SVI was again a predictor of COVID-19 outcomes. Counties with greater proportion of black residents also observed similar temporal trends in COVID-19-related adverse outcomes. Counties with greater proportion of Hispanic residents had worse outcomes throughout the duration of the analysis.ConclusionExcept for the winter ‘third wave’, when majority of the white communities had the highest incidence of cases, counties with greater social vulnerability and proportionately higher minority populations experienced worse COVID-19 outcomes.

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the number one killer of adults in the U.S., with marked ethnic/racial disparities in prevalence, risk factors, associated health behaviors, and death rates. In this study, we recruited and randomized Blacks with poor cardiovascular health in the Atlanta Metro area to receive an intervention comparing two approaches to engagement with a behavioral intervention technology for CVD. Generalized Linear Mixed Models results from a 6-month intervention indicate that 53% of all participants experienced a statistical improvement in Life’s Simple 7 (LS7), 54% in BMI, 61% in blood glucose, and 53% in systolic blood pressure. Females demonstrated a statistically significant improvement in BMI and diastolic blood pressure and a reduction in self-reported physical activity. We found no significant differences in changes in LS7 or their constituent parts but found strong evidence that health coaches can help improve overall LS7 in participants living in at-risk neighborhoods. In terms of clinical significance, our result indicates that improvements in LS7 correspond to a 7% lifetime reduction of incident CVD. Our findings suggest that technology-enabled self-management can be effective for managing selected CVD risk factors among Blacks.

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