This study is the first attempt to generate a three-dimensional (3D) coronal electron density distribution based on the pix2pixHD model, whose computing time is much shorter than that of the magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation. For this, we consider photospheric solar magnetic fields as input, and electron density distribution simulated with the MHD Algorithm outside a Sphere (MAS) at a given solar radius is taken as output. We consider 155 pairs of Carrington rotations as inputs and outputs from 2010 June to 2022 April for training and testing. We train 152 deep-learning models for 152 solar radii, which are taken up to 30 solar radii. The artificial intelligence (AI) generated 3D electron densities from this study are quite consistent with the simulated ones from lower radii to higher radii, with an average correlation coefficient 0.97. The computing time of testing data sets up to 30 solar radii of 152 deep-learning models is about 45.2 s using the NVIDIA TITAN XP graphics-processing unit, which is much less than the typical simulation time of MAS. We find that the synthetic coronagraphic images estimated from the deep-learning models are similar to the Solar Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)/Large Angle and Spectroscopic Coronagraph C3 coronagraph data, especially during the solar minimum period. The AI-generated coronal density distribution from this study can be used for space weather models on a near-real-time basis.
In this study, we forecast hourly relativistic (>2 MeV) electron fluxes at geostationary orbit for the next 72 hr using a deep learning model based on multilayer perceptron. The input data of the model are solar wind parameters (temperature, density and speed), interplanetary magnetic field (|B| and Bz), geomagnetic indices (Kp and Dst), and electron fluxes themselves. All input data are hourly averaged ones for the preceding 72 consecutive hours. We use electron flux data from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES)‐15 and ‐16, and perform a mapping for matching these two data. Total period of the data is from 2011 January to 2021 March (GOES‐15 data for 2011–2017 and GOES‐16 data for 2018–2021). We divide the data into training set (January–August), validation set (September), and test set (October–December) to consider the solar cycle effect. Our main results are as follows. First, our model successfully predicts hourly electron fluxes for the next 72 hr. Second, root‐mean‐square error of our model is from 0.18 (for 1 hr prediction) to 0.68 (for 72 hr prediction), and prediction efficiency is from 0.97 to 0.53, which are much better than those of the previous studies. Third, our model well predicts both diurnal variation and sudden increases of electron fluxes associated with fast solar winds and interplanetary magnetic fields. Our study implies that the deep learning model can be applied to forecasting long‐term sequential space weather events.
Accurate and reliable disaster forecasting is vital for saving lives and property. Hence, effective disaster management is necessary to reduce the impact of natural disasters and to accelerate recovery and reconstruction. Typhoons are one of the major disasters related to heavy rainfall in Korea. As a typhoon develops in the far ocean, satellite observations are the only means to monitor them. Our study uses satellite observations to propose a deep-learning-based disaster monitoring model for short-term typhoon rainfall forecasting. For this, we consider two deep learning models: a video frame prediction model, Warp and Refine Network (WR-Net), to predict future satellite observations and an image-to-image translation model, geostationary rainfall product (GeorAIn) (based on the Pix2PixCC model), to generate rainfall maps from predicted satellite images. Typhoon Hinnamnor, the worst typhoon case in 2022 in Korea, is selected as a target case for model verification. The results show that the predicted satellite images can capture the structures and patterns of the typhoon. The rainfall maps generated from the GeorAIn model using predicted satellite images show a correlation coefficient of 0.81 for 3-hr and 0.56 for 7-hr predictions. The proposed disaster monitoring model can provide us with practical implications for disaster alerting systems and can be extended to flood-monitoring systems.
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